The Islamic State terrorist group is determined to attack the FIFA World Cup in Russia.
Just last week, a pro-ISIS media outlet published a video threatening attacks on World Cup stadiums via drones. While it’s probably an exaggeration designed to inspire attackers, the video does speak to a real threat.
The primary concern here is posed by Salafi-jihadists in Russia’s southern Caucasus region. A sustaining community of Chechen Salafi-jihadists in this area gives ISIS a ripe recruiting ground with which to mobilize attacks. And while a large number of Chechen ISIS fighters have been killed in Syria and Iraq, others have returned home.
And for ISIS, attacking the World Cup poses two attractions.
First, the guarantee of widespread international attention in the event of any successful attack. For ISIS, which has lost much of its previous territory, striking the World Cup would rebuild the group’s credibility in the global jihadist movement. That credibility is crucial in attracting financial support, earning new recruits, inspiring attacks, and in advancing ISIS ideological narratives.
Don’t write ISIS off as a defeated joke. The group is regrouping and last year very nearly destroyed an Australian-origin passenger airliner. While its external attack capabilities have been degraded since 2015, ISIS retains the ability to direct attacks on western soil.
Yet ISIS also wants to attack the World Cup because of its particular despisement for Russia. Launching numerous attacks against Russia since 2014, ISIS has embraced the exceptional aggression that defines Chechen-aligned jihadist movements. This blood-feud mentality drives ISIS sympathizers forward to carry out new attacks.
But what likelihood is there of an attack during the tournament?
Well, one may have occurred already. Over the weekend, a driver smashed his car into pedestrians in central Moscow (thankfully, no one was killed). While Russian authorities say it was an accident, video footage suggests otherwise. And as The Independent notes, the Kremlin is particularly keen to avoid reporting of an attack.
Going forward, the probability of an attack is medium to high. While Russian security forces are saturating stadiums and providing extensive protection for traveling teams, they cannot eliminate the threat entirely. The primary risk in terms of a major attack is a November 2015 Paris-style incident involving firearms and explosives — Russia-based jihadists possess both in abundance. Fortunately, other nations are putting their political disagreements with Putin aside in order to help protect the tournament against attack. The U.S., for example, has played a critical role in supporting Russian counter-terrorism efforts by virtue of its boutique signal intercept capabilities.
Still, until the World Cup is over and all the teams have returned home, the Russian ministry of interior and FSB security service will be working some long and stressful shifts.
