Their leaders might have held a rare summit on Friday, but China and India won’t be friends for a long time.
Yes, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi want an improved trading relationship. That said, their divided interests, nationalist sympathies, and mistrust run too deep to render a true friendship.
Still, the trading potential of these two giant neighbors is significant. Although India runs a significant trade deficit with China, it rightly believes that China’s increasing wealth offers vast export potential. Reflecting as much, Indian exports to China have been growing at a strong pace over the past few months. As Modi continues his domestic economic reforms he’ll have to show his constituents that they can benefit. China knows that its market access is a valuable prize to dangle in Modi’s face.
But not that valuable.
While Chinese state media is telling Indian leaders that they should accept the role of a junior partner in a broad political alignment with Beijing, they won’t succeed.
At the crunch point, India is very skeptical of Chinese ambitions in the region. India’s specific concern here is China’s vast investment in India’s arch-nemesis, Pakistan, and New Delhi’s associated concern that this represents a Chinese effort to corral its territory and marginalize its influence.
China and India are also engaged in a stand-off over a mountainous area bordering Bhutan. Tensions here have declined recently, but they will eventually boil over again.
That speaks to the ultimate challenge for China-India relations: conflicting nationalist ambition.
Ultimately, where Modi seeks to forge the world’s largest democracy into an economic superpower and leading power on the international stage, China wants to keep India in a position of relative weakness. With both nations’ populations possessing deep nationalist pride, their leaders are encouraged to pursue bold and, if necessary, aggressive policies.
In turn, as India seeks more influence in Southeast Asia and China more influence in the Indian Ocean rim, the two nations will come into increasing tension.
The U.S. also influences India’s perspective here.
That’s because as U.S.-India relations continue to improve, Modi has more confidence in pushing back against Chinese pressure. While China’s economy is five times the size of India’s, Beijing has traditionally underestimated its neighbor’s resolve.
In short, you shouldn’t expect a war (both nations are nuclear powers who value stability) but neither should you expect an Indo-Pacific special relationship.
