Two new polls spell boom for former Vice President Joe Biden and doom for socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.
One month ago, The Hill found Biden had 36% of Democratic support and Bernie had 19%. Now, Biden’s nearly secured the majority of those polled by The Hill, with 46% support and Sanders sinking to 14%.
Just three weeks ago, Morning Consult found just 30% Democrats polled supported Biden and 24% supported Sanders. Now, 40% of those polled support Biden and 19% support Sanders.
These results follow an ongoing trend seen in national polls since Biden formally announced his bid. In under two weeks, Biden’s Real Clear Politics average has soared from 29.3% to 39%, and Sanders’ has sank from 23% to 15.5%. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., have plateaued, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has seen a slight boost. All three hover around 7%, with the rest of the field slowly drowning as more DOA candidates flood the field.
Ordinarily, there wouldn’t be too much to read into this, given the size of the field and the amount of time left before primary voting even begins. But Biden’s boom is especially noteworthy alongside Sanders’ bust. Sanders may have higher name recognition than any other senator, and his specific policy proposals and ideology are already ubiquitous, so there’s little upside for him, whereas perhaps relative neophytes like Buttigieg or Harris could gain support as they build up name recognition.
But everyone already knows what they need to know about Sanders, and the few new details which do emerge, such as his Soviet honeymoon sojourns and mayoral mishaps, apparently aren’t endearing voters to him.
Both Sanders and Biden have two major liabilities: their age and half a century as a career politician. Polling repeatedly finds that Democratic voters dislike (in principle, anyway) voting for candidates older than 70, and that candidates like Buttigieg and insurgent stars like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., benefit from positioning themselves as outsiders. But clearly, voters are overlooking the age and baggage of the sole candidate bulldozing down the moderate neo-liberal lane. Meanwhile, the Never Biden crowd is scrambling for a more viable alternative.
Warren’s policies may be nearly as radical as Sanders’, even as she hasn’t bogged herself down with the socialism label. Will her fortunes rise with Sanders’ fall?
Again, we’re more than eight months away from the Iowa caucuses, and polling for pivotal primary states is still sparse. Real Clear Politics gives Biden a four point lead in Iowa and one point in New Hampshire, a state that will prove vital for Sanders’ pathway to the nomination. Biden maintains a hefty lead in the few South Carolina polls available, but even that doesn’t carry too much weight this early.
But more than disproving the theory that Biden’s best day would be his first, the trendline of national polling may provide a warning to Sanders supporters attempting to galvanize the left-wing base.
