I had bought into the hype that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio would be the anti-Donald Trump alternative. After Tuesday night, I don’t see how it can happen.
Rubio won just a single state during Super Tuesday’s primaries — Minnesota. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has now won three states.
I get that March 15 is another big night for primaries, and that Rubio’s home state is on the ballot. But I don’t see Rubio suddenly pulling an upset win when he hasn’t been able to pull off a primary win to date. (His win tonight was in a caucus.) Conventional wisdom has been saying a late-state surge would propel Rubio to victory in this state, or this state, but it hasn’t happened.
The March 15 states are also supposed to be friendlier to Rubio. But given the current trajectory, it’s hard to believe that he will be able to sweep the night to pull ahead of Trump for the nomination.
So where is it going to happen? Rubio isn’t polling ahead of anyone in any state. The only state he was polling ahead was Minnesota. It was a damn good thing he won there.
Rubio might have been the best chance to beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, but he doesn’t appear able to even win the Republican primary, so we can forget that.
In Virginia, more than 50 percent of voters in a Fox News exit poll said that Rubio would be most likely to win in November, yet the state voted for Trump. (Great job, guys!)
Cruz can point to three states where he has won, Rubio can point to just one. It’s becoming clear that if the Republican Party doesn’t want to become the party of Trump, then Cruz is the alternative.
Maybe if Trump hadn’t run, things would be different, but as it stands now, it is very hard to see how Rubio pulls off this election.
Rubio will most likely stay in past March 15, but it looks like it will be for nothing. GOP insiders keep trying to claim that it will happen for Rubio, that he will over-perform, that a late-stage surge is going to carry him because of his last debate performance or some comment he made at a rally. But it hasn’t happened. It’s time to face facts: It’s not going to happen.
Rubio isn’t even polling ahead in his own home state of Florida. If he can’t even win his own home state, how can he possibly win the nomination?
Ashe Schow is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
