This CNN school shootings stat is seriously flawed

This school shooting statistic went viral Monday morning after it was shared online by national political reporter M.J. Lee. As of this writing, more than 4,000 social media users have shared the graphic.

But there are some serious problems with these figures.

First, it’s unclear why the 2011 Rio de Janeiro massacre, which claimed the lives of 14 children, was omitted from the image broadcast this weekend by CNN. True, the deadly shooting in Brazil is included in an article that appears on CNN’s website, but that makes it even weirder that the TV side of things would exclude the 2011 incident from an on-air image populated by so many countries that haven’t reported a school shooting since 2009.

Second, and this is the most important thing, the statistic’s methodology is a total mess. The CNN statistic leans heavily on news reports collected by the notoriously unreliable Gun Violence Archive, whose database of “school shootings” includes, among other things, an incident involving a pellet gun and an accidental discharge during “public safety class.”

For CNN, this is kosher.

In fact, in one article outlining the number of alleged school shootings in 2018, CNN states up front that its tally includes both “gang violence, fights and domestic violence” as well as events that happened to have occurred on school property, including parking lots.

It’s unclear whether the cable news network applied this same broad methodology to the other countries included in the gun violence graphic aired this weekend. That is, it’s unclear whether CNN similarly included incidents near or around schools in, say, South Africa and Argentina, in its final global estimate.

Lastly, on a related note, let’s address the fact that there’s no clear consensus among gun-control advocates as to the number of school shootings in the U.S. over the last decade. They all agree the number is very high, but they can’t seem to agree on a single figure. The fact that the number of shootings has been placed anywhere between 14, 18, 74, and now 288 means these claims should be handled with caution and skepticism.

The point here isn’t to dunk on a newsroom or gun-control advocates. The point certainly isn’t to dismiss or downplay the seriousness of gun violence in the United States. It’s definitely a problem. In fact, as a Washington Post analysis correctly noted last week, this year has been deadlier for students in the U.S. than members of the U.S. armed forces.

The point here is to lobby for accuracy.

The gun violence debate is a mess. If we are serious about finding a way to reduce the number of deaths, the issue’s strongest voices can’t be seen as being bad-faith participants. But that’s exactly what CNN looks like with this poorly researched school shooting statistic.

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Full disclosure: This author is a paid contributor with CNN/HLN.