Let’s hope none of these games get postponed three times (or one time) for COVID-19 outbreaks, like the strange Wednesday afternoon game between the still-undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. Everyone would love to see the NFL regular season and playoffs go off without a hitch.
Last week, my picks went 3-0 straight up but just 1-2 against the spread. As teams are making playoff pushes, and as we’re coming down the stretch of the regular season, I’ll try to make a push of my own. Overall this season, my picks are 23-13 straight up and 19-16 against the spread (with one annoying push).
Cleveland Browns (8-3) at Tennessee Titans (8-3), 1 p.m. ET on CBS
Cleveland clinched its first non-losing season since 2007 by holding off the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars last week while Tennessee rode Derrick Henry to the top of the AFC South.
This match-up features two of the NFL’s top-three rushing offenses. The Browns lay claim to the top spot but are separated by just 3 yards per game from the Titans.
It would be hard to argue that Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt aren’t the best backfield tandem in the NFL. Chubb is averaging over 100 yards per game and is averaging over 6 yards per carry. He also has six rushing touchdowns and 10 rushing plays of at least 20 yards so far this season.
As impressive as Chubb and Hunt have been together this season, Derrick Henry has been the more impressive individual runner. He’s leading the NFL in rushing yards, has racked up 12 rushing touchdowns, and is averaging over 114 rushing yards per game. He put up 178 yards and three touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts last week. In the two games prior to that, he had 133 and 103 yards, respectively. He’s heating up at the perfect time for the Titans.
It’s important to note that the Browns have the NFL’s ninth-best run defense while the Titans are in the middle of the pack at 16th. That might seem stark, but the difference is actually quite small with the Titans giving up an average of around 7 more yards per game.
Tennessee maintains a very balanced offense. The Titans have run the ball 357 times while Ryan Tannehill, who has thrown 23 touchdown passes this season against just four picks, has thrown the ball 334 times, and completed 65% of those pass attempts.
Baker Mayfield hasn’t been great, but he has certainly been good enough. The Browns are ranked third-to-last in passing yards per game but have balanced that out with their prowess in the running game. Mayfield has thrown 17 touchdown passes and seven interceptions this season and is completing fewer than 62% of his passes.
Keep your eye on Jarvis Landry. He leads the Browns with a mere 46 catches this season but has a nearly 2-to-1 lead in receiving yards because he has 10 catches of at least 20 yards. It doesn’t take a math whiz to see that he’s taking 1 out of every 4.6 catches for 20 yards or more. He only has one touchdown this year, but his ability to break big plays could be huge.
Another stat that caught my eye was third-down defense. No team is worse at stopping opponents on third down than the Titans. Making matters worse for Tennessee is that it has the third-worst red zone defense as well. Cleveland is 20th when it comes to moving the chains on third down. Will the Browns be able to take advantage and extend drives?
The line: Tennessee Titans (-5.5)
The pick: The Titans smashed Indianapolis’s elite defense last week and are riding a ton of momentum. I like the Titans to win and cover.
Los Angeles Rams (7-4) at Arizona Cardinals (6-5), 4:05 p.m. ET on FOX
The Rams are coming off a surprising loss to the 49ers while the Cardinals are coming off a disappointing loss to the Patriots.
The Rams have the NFL’s third-best scoring defense, the second-best pass defense, and the fourth-best run defense. They’re tied for fourth in sacks, even though they only blitz just over 26% of the time. That means they’re getting incredible pressure and penetration without needing to bring in corners, linebackers, or safeties.
Los Angeles also happens to lead the league in fewest yards allowed per play, and its opponents are scoring on fewer than 29% of their drives.
The offense’s inconsistency has been holding LA back this year. The Rams have the league’s 19th-best scoring offense and are scoring on just 34.4% of their possessions. For context, only four teams are doing worse than that: the Chicago Bears, the Denver Broncos, the Philadelphia Eagles, and the New York Jets.
Jared Goff has thrown 16 touchdown passes this year but has also thrown 10 picks. He threw for over 370 yards and three touchdowns against the Bucs but failed to crack 200 yards last week against the San Francisco 49ers. He had two interceptions in each of those games. Regardless of which Goff we see this week, he has to make better decisions with the football.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, are usually explosive on offense but haven’t played quite like themselves the last two weeks. They failed to score more than 21 points and have dropped three of their last four games.
Kyler Murray has had a fantastic season, but teams are blitzing and keying in on him more and more. He had to deal with a sprained AC joint but says that it isn’t an issue now. Murray has thrown 19 touchdown passes as well as nine interceptions, so he has similar issues as Goff, but he’s a much better runner. Murray is second on the team in rushing yards, has 10 rushing touchdowns, and is averaging nearly 7 yards per carry.
When it comes to running backs, I certainly like Arizona’s Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds over the Rams’s Darrell Henderson Jr., Malcolm Brown, and Cam Akers. When it comes to receivers, Arizona’s DeAndre Hopkins is the best in football. Murray should try to get him involved early and often. The Cardinals have a top-five running game and a top-10 scoring offense. They’re also just one of seven teams that average over 6 yards per play on offense.
I think this will be a close game, so I think executing on offense and defense on third down and in the red zone will be critical. The Cardinals are fifth in red zone defense while the Rams are 19th. The Rams are fourth in third-down defense while the Cardinals are 15th. The Rams are 8th, and the Cardinals are 10th when it comes to third-down offense, but Arizona is fourth in red zone offense while LA is 11th.
The line: Los Angeles Rams (-3.0)
The pick: Murray and Goff both concern me, but I find Murray’s recent struggles a little more concerning. Are teams starting to figure him out a little bit more? I’m taking the Rams to win and cover.
Buffalo Bills (8-3) at San Francisco 49ers (5-6), Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN
This will be an interesting Monday Night Football game because the San Francisco 49ers are playing a home game — in Arizona. Santa Clara County, California, introduced a three-week ban on contact sports with no exceptions, forcing San Francisco to move all of its football operations to Arizona.
The Bills were quite sloppy in their win over the Chargers while the 49ers clamped down and rode a huge performance from Deebo Samuel and a game-winning kick from Robbie Gould to victory against the Rams.
Nick Mullens doesn’t exactly inspire, but he did enough to beat a very good Rams defense last week. The Bills are weaker in almost every meaningful category than the Rams. They’re worse against the run, the pass, and much worse in scoring defense.
What the Bills do have is a better offense. The Bills have a top-10 scoring offense, are averaging 5.9 yards per play, and score on nearly 48% of their possessions. Josh Allen has taken the next step in his development and has the Bills atop the AFC East. He’s averaging over 300 passing yards per game and has thrown 22 touchdown passes and eight interceptions while completing nearly 69% of his passes. He’s still a threat with his legs as well. He’s second on the team in rushing yards and leads the squad with six rushing touchdowns.
Devin Singletary was impressive against the Chargers, and I think Buffalo will try to deploy him in a similar way this week. The Los Angeles Chargers did a great job keeping Buffalo’s top two receivers, Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley, in check, so look for Allen to try to find them early and often to get their confidence going against the 49ers.
The 49ers running attack is far less potent than last year’s, but Mullens has helped the passing attack inch into the top half of the league in terms of yards per game. George Kittle, who is very likely done for the year and hasn’t played since Nov. 1 due to injury, still leads the team in catches and receiving yards. Deebo Samuel, as I alluded to before, had a monster performance with 11 catches for 133 yards last week. Jerick McKinnon will definitely get some looks out of the backfield as a receiver since Raheem Mostert will be handling the lion’s share of the carries.
The 49ers have been an interesting and confusing team to watch this season. All six of their losses have come against teams that are in the hunt for playoff spots, and they swept their season series with the Rams.
An interesting stat to keep an eye on: Only the Kansas City Chiefs convert more on third down than the Bills do. If they can continue to extend drives, they’ll stand a much better chance of wearing down and wearing out the 49ers defense.
The line: Buffalo Bills (-2.0)
The pick: I don’t expect the Bills to make as many mistakes as they did against the Chargers, and it will be quite different for the 49ers to play a home game in a stadium that isn’t theirs. I’ll take the Bills to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
