When the Congress and the president can’t come to an agreement on a budget, they opt instead to pass a continuing resolution that helps keep the government running. The mechanism makes sense and, after the public reaction to the government shutdown of 1996, both the Congress and the president learned that no matter what the difficulties in Washington, the public expects the government to keep on working.
This kind of impasse isn’t unique to Washington. It happens to state governments as well. In 2004, the Virginia Legislature had to work overtime to reach a compromise, but the Commonwealth never got to the point where it didn’t have a budget to start the fiscal year. In fact, that possibility was considered so unlikely that, when the Virginia Constitution was approved in 1973, the issue wasn’t even addressed.
This year, however, a budget train wreck and a possible partial shutdown of the state government is looking more and more likely. For many in Richmond, the issue isn’t so much what happens on July 1st if there is no budget, but what happens when there is no budget.
The legislature seems hopelessly deadlocked over the issue of transportation. However, what makes this situation unusual is that this isn’t the normal Democrat vs. Republican fight. The reason behind the budget stalemate is a split between various factions of the Republican majority inRichmond.
Both houses of the legislature have GOP majorities. The Senate — and Gov. Tim Kaine, for that matter — want to increase some state fees and taxes to support a nearly $1 billion investment in transportation (mostly for roads, but some will go for Metro and the VRE). The House, on the other hand, thinks the Senate is asking for too much and wants to rely on the surplus instead of tax hikes.
In most circumstances, this kind of difference of opinion might seem routine and something that could be resolved through negotiation. Unfortunately, the differences between the House and Senate Republicans are so profound and the room for compromise so small, that a budget crisis seems inevitable.
Like any fight, there are going to be winners and losers. If Virginia faces a shutdown, the voters — who right now are ignoring this issue — will suddenly perk up and start taking sides. Certainly, it will be resolved, if for no other reason than that the embarrassment factor will force a solution. However, that won’t happen until someone has paid a price in terms of political capital.
Kaine says he is preparing for the worst. His statutory authority in a shutdown isn’t defined by law, but if he decides to stretch his governmental powers in order to keep the state running, there won’t be a great deal of protest. Most residents — the ones who like to see the state troopers on the road and the DMV and the liquor stores open —will probably be appreciative of a forceful approach.
Even if Kaine emerges a winner, the GOP — and their members in the House, in particular — are risking a lot. The voters, particularly those who live in areas of the state where traffic is worst, want the transportation issue addressed. The Republican House members may think they’re serving their constituents by playing this form of legislative chicken, but if it reaches a point where the public perceives them as obstructionist, they may end up being the losers in this fight.
David Kerr works in the communications office of the JPDO, a joint private and public sector aviation organization based in Washington, D.C. He is also a freelance writer and lives in Stafford, Va.
