FBI Director Christopher Wray and the director-general of Britain’s MI5 domestic intelligence service issued a rare joint address on Wednesday.
Communist China was the topic.
MI5’s Ken McCallum began by describing how the United States and Britain face a “massive shared challenge” by the Chinese Communist Party. McCallum outlined the vast scale of Chinese espionage targeting advanced technologies and research. He also made clear that the primary target of this espionage is not the British government but rather private organizations. As he put it, “By volume, most of what is at risk from Chinese Communist Party aggression is not, so to speak, my stuff. It’s yours.”
Wray noted that China was moving to shield its economy from Western sanctions in response to any future invasion of Taiwan. The FBI director pointed out that China has not simply conducted espionage on U.S. soil but has also carried out covert action to damage U.S. political candidates. Wray again emphasized that the scale of China’s espionage challenge outmatches that of every other adversary combined. This point bears repeating in face of the Biden administration’s terrible decision to end a key counterintelligence program for reasons of misguided political correctness.
But the key takeaway is what this joint address signifies about the shift in British thinking on China over the past two years.
McCallum carefully hinted at as much, noting that “previously constrained” MI5 investigations on China-related targets are now at a scale seven times greater than in 2018. That ramp-up extends to Britain’s foreign intelligence counterpart, the Secret Intelligence Service, or MI6, and its GCHQ signal intelligence service. It should be noted, however, that MI6 has achieved high-value China-related operational successes in recent years.
The prior constraint of Britain’s China-focused intelligence operations wasn’t simply a consequence of limited resources. It reflected the decision by David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister between 2010 and 2016, and his Chancellor George Osborne to prioritize Chinese investment above moral or security concerns.
This gave Xi Jinping the real prospect of degrading the U.S.-U.K. special relationship by buying off British political acquiescence to his foreign policy agenda. While Cameron’s successor, Theresa May, took a more robust stance toward Beijing, it wasn’t until the Trump administration exerted major pressure on Boris Johnson that Britain began to shift its conception of Beijing from that of a partner to a threat.
Still, U.S. concerns remain. In a not-so-subtle public rebuke of Johnson’s government, the U.S. National Counterintelligence and Security Center this week tweeted concern over China’s looming purchase of Britain’s largest semiconductor plant. As I noted last July, that prospective purchase reflects the U.K.’s desire to retain Chinese trade investment. It’s an especially pertinent British concern following the trade dislocations associated with Britain’s 2020 “Brexit” withdrawal from the European Union. In turn, recognizing the Chinese trade retaliation costs Britain will incur by aligning with the U.S., the Biden administration should energize efforts to reach a U.S.-U.K. free trade deal.
But how did the U.K. finally get to this point?
Top line: the British security establishment’s recognition that the special relationship could not coexist alongside Britain’s continued deference to Beijing. At the same time, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken Britain’s sense of the international security environment. It has also galvanized Britain’s post-Brexit sense of moral purpose in the world. This has been evinced by Britain’s unparalleled tolerance for risk in providing Ukraine with advanced weapons. Britain also believes that its trade and value interests can be better served by aligning with democratic India rather than by bowing to Beijing.
Regardless, China’s propaganda apparatus will likely react furiously to this joint address. Beijing wants Western division, not unity. And while it is hopeful about France and Germany, even the European Union is growing more skeptical that a true partnership with Beijing is possible.
Let’s hope the trend lines keep shifting in the right direction. China poses an existential threat to democratic sovereignty and prosperity in the 21st century. Its imperial ambitions must be constrained.
