A little over a month into his time as British prime minister and Boris Johnson can’t escape a topic that has haunted the last two prime ministers: Brexit. It’s a nightmare scenario for any leader, and with the Oct. 31 deadline quickly approaching, negotiators don’t appear to be anywhere close to a deal.
Johnson’s ascent to 10 Downing St. was based on his bold promise to do something his two predecessors didn’t want to accomplish: deliver a clean break from the European Union. Since becoming prime minister, he’s been leveraging all the power the office holds to make good on that promise. He’s asked Queen Elizabeth II to suspend Parliament to limit debate from the opposition who seek to delay Brexit, and he’s pledged to call for an early election in October that will have only two outcomes: Either he strengthens his support in Parliament, or he comes out a loser and is forced to resign. Now Johnson has officially suspended Parliament until mid-October.
But in the last week, all roads lead to a resignation. Last Tuesday, Johnson’s Conservative Party lost a majority in Parliament when one of its members defected and joined the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats. Johnson also faced a public relations nightmare when he removed 21 Conservative members of his party after they rebelled against his Brexit strategy. One of those lawmakers removed was Winston Churchill’s grandson, Nicolas Soames. On Thursday, Johnson’s brother, Jo Johnson, resigned from Parliament, saying he was “torn between family loyalty and the national interest.”
On Friday, the House of Lords approved a bill that blocks Johnson from a no-deal Brexit. The bill would also require him to request a three-month extension if a proper Brexit deal can’t be negotiated and approved by Parliament before the October deadline. Additionally, Johnson lost all leverage for an election after lawmakers said they’d force him to request a three-month extension before Parliament would consider supporting an early election. Johnson must receive two-thirds support in Parliament for an election, and right now, he does not have the support.
The idea to call an early election never made any sense politically. Predata, a predictive analytics company for geopolitical risk that accurately predicted Brexit before anyone else, just recently published a fascinating analysis titled “Brexit and the English Constitution,” where their data suggests that people are more interested in the United Kingdom’s unwritten constitution than another election. It’s a message that lawmakers should pay close attention to. As Predata noted in their analysis, “It seems that the British people may be concerned with matters more fundamental than which political party will lead the UK into its post-EU future.” Some things are more important than politics, and this data shows it. Their future is at stake, and perhaps now is the time in the midst of all the chaos to start discussing a more formal constitution.
But with all of the uncertainties surrounding the details of a Brexit, one thing is certain — the deadline for a Brexit is quickly approaching. With so much work to do, it seems impossible that a deal could be reached in time and that an extension seems more likely, forcing Johnson to break his Oct. 31 Brexit campaign promise. He’s backed into a corner with no way out, and his support in Parliament is quickly eroding.
More than a political issue, he’s now got a credibility problem. Brexit has already destroyed the political careers of two prime ministers, and it’s about to claim a third.
Mark Vargas (@MarkAVargas) is a tech entrepreneur, political adviser and contributor to the Washington Examiner‘s Beltway Confidential blog.
