If Russian President Vladimir Putin believed the Ukrainian army would surrender without a fight, he was mistaken.
Ukraine is putting up a tougher fight than Moscow likely expected. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry claims 3,000 Russian troops have been killed in the first 36 hours of the war, although one should be skeptical about any figures released by the combatants. To his credit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hasn’t run away from his people like Ashraf Ghani did seven months ago in Afghanistan. In a defiant self-recorded video on Friday, Zelensky said he was still in Kyiv with his top advisers. This was a message to Putin as much as it was for the Ukrainian people.
But in warfare, as in life, you can’t defeat math or physics. Ukraine’s army is no match for the Russian armed forces. This has nothing to do with the heroism of Ukrainian troops and everything to do with numbers and capabilities.
Moscow has superiority in every weapons category: land, sea, and air. They can strike targets in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and other Ukrainian cities simply by using the long-range artillery, cruise, and ballistic missiles Russia has placed near Ukraine’s borders. Russia targeted multiple airfields, ammunition depots, and barracks on the first day of the war.
While Ukraine continues to operate some air defense systems and has reportedly downed multiple Russian aircraft, these systems won’t be sufficient if Putin decides to use more force. If the Ukrainians remain steadfast in their resistance, a more indiscriminate, lethal military campaign is almost assured — perhaps only one-third of the 150,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s borders appear to have been deployed so far.
Washington may be pleasantly encouraged the Ukrainian army is holding firm and at least giving the Russians a run for their money. It’s inspiring to watch Ukrainian troops and ordinary civilians, young and old, fight for their country. But the realist in me says the outcome of this conflict, militarily speaking, isn’t in doubt. Russian forces have advanced into Ukraine from three different directions — from the south, east, and north — to spread out Ukrainian defenders. Ukraine has lost possession of military airfields, one of which is 20 miles from Kyiv. The U.S. intelligence assessment remains that the capital city will be taken within one to four days of a Russian offensive.
Zelensky seems to understand the gravity of the situation. He knows his army can’t hold out for long, which is why he is making multiple appeals for Russia to sit down at the negotiating table. Zelensky reached out to Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, asking him to mediate a possible dialogue with Moscow. His previous entreaties to Putin were greeted in Moscow with a mix of intrigue and name-calling, with the Russian leader referring to the Ukrainian leadership as usurpers, aggressors, and right-wing lunatics. Putin doesn’t sound like a man eager to offer concessions in any way, shape, or form. Indeed, at this point, Putin may not be content with anything less than the full decapitation of Zelensky’s administration.
There is no way to put it nicely: Ukraine is in an awful position. If it continues to fight, more Ukrainians will perish. But if it surrenders to Russia’s terms, it will essentially be caving to the very leader, Putin, who ordered an attack against it. Such is the brutal nature of a war Zelensky finds himself in.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.
