Will rising inflation rates motivate Vladimir Putin to launch a new military offensive against Ukraine?
The question bears serious attention. After all, Putin appears increasingly concerned about the impact of inflation on the economy and his popularity. The Russian president has just requested amendments to parliamentary legislation to boost the minimum wage by 8.6% in 2022. The Russian labor ministry estimates this will cost an additional $410 million. As shown in the TradingEconomics.com chart below, Russia’s inflation rate has steadily increased over the year, now approaching 9%. In part driven by a poor harvest, the inflation rate for food is approaching 11%. This hurts Russian families and undermines Putin’s central political narrative — namely that he can provide both sustained order and improvements to living standards.
