With tariffs growing and prices rising, should we feel great or what?

Published February 19, 2020 9:37pm ET



President Trump tweeted in May 2019, “I am very happy with over $100 Billion a year in Tariffs filling U.S. coffers … great for U.S., not good for China!” As indicated by the chart below, which is based on the latest Federal Reserve data, Trump’s 2019 estimate was off by about $29 billion. Customs revenues in the second quarter of 2019 rose to about $71 billion. Indeed, we have still not seen $100 billion in tariff revenues. Even if we had, we might wish to subtract the amount in government payments being made to farmers as a result of tariff-induced lost markets.