The New Hampshire Democratic primary is over, and Bernie Sanders has scored a major victory over Hillary Clinton. Here are three thoughts on the results:
Sanders wins
The final polls predicted Sanders would get 54.5 percent of the vote. Now it seems likely that he will finish much closer to 60 percent instead. This is a triumph for Sanders’ grassroots supporters. No one should be surprised that Sanders won this contest. He has led polls since early December. His average margin of victory in the final six polls was more than 13 percentage points.
Even though he technically lost in Iowa, Sanders exceeded expectations enough to make it seem like a win. No doubt it helped Sanders that his home state of Vermont borders New Hampshire. Still, will he be able to ride this landslide victory to success in Nevada and South Carolina?
Clinton’s folly
There’s no other way to spin it: This was an awful night for Clinton. Despite all her endorsements, all her presidential campaign experience and the aid of the powerful Clinton political machine, Clinton couldn’t even meet the lackluster expectation of 41 percent of the vote. According to exit polls, the only demographics Clinton won were the old — voters 65 years and older— and the rich — voters from families earning $200,000 a year or more.
That makes two primaries in a row that Clinton has had disappointing results. At this point, you have to wonder: Will Clinton’s endorsers start to switch sides? Clinton needs an exceptionally strong showing in Nevada and South Carolina to turn the narrative around. It’s unlikely her ongoing email scandal will give her a respite from the negative news cycle.
Nevada
Next up for Democratic candidates is the Nevada caucus on Saturday, Feb. 20. Itt’s anyone’s guess what will happen since here hasn’t been a single poll released publicly on that contest since December, a month before the Iowa caucuses. Historically, the results from Iowa and New Hampshire give certain candidates momentum going into later contests.
That last Nevada poll showed Clinton with 50 percent support to Bernie Sanders’s 27 percent (Martin O’Malley’s one percent support won’t affect the race). Expect upcoming polls to shift more in Sanders’s favor. He’s essentially won the two major news cycles coming out of New Hampshire and Iowa, given his landslide victory and exceeding expectations in each state, respectively.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
