Polls are sometimes very wrong. The media has a very bad reputation this election. But if you’re trying to figure out who will win an election, taking the aggregate of many statewide polls of likely voters is a pretty good way.
You can’t simply take poll averages — you need to parse them a bit. But close reading of polls can steer you pretty close to the truth. In 2012, I used this method to predict an Obama win. I underestimated his Electoral College margin. In 2014, I missed one state.
Some people posit that Trump will have lots of hidden support that doesn’t appear in the polls. I think there’s some truth here, but that this effect will drowned out by an opposing dynamic: Clinton has a vastly superior turnout operation. So in many cases, she’ll outperform polls.
So here we go. A look at all the swing-y states this election. I begin with RealClearPolitics’ baseline, with one adjustment — I put all of Maine into the swing category (for the sake of easier explanation).
BASELINE:
Clinton 202
Trump 164
ARIZONA: 11 EV
There was a brief period a month a ago when Clinton led the polls in Arizona. That looks like an aberration now. He’s led in every recent poll, outside the margin of error. Leaning Trump.
COLORADO: 9 EV
At bottom, Colorado is a Democratic state. Except for the spectacularly bad reelection campaign of Mark Udall two years ago (he was running on contraception), Democrats have carried every statewide race since 2004—Governor, Senate, and Presidency.
Trump hasn’t led in a poll since September. The last two weeks have seen seven polls. Two are tied, and five show Clinton winning. Her RCP average is 2.9 points higher than Trump’s. Leaning Clinton.
FLORIDA: 29 EV
Clinton and Trump are within the margin of error in most recent polls. On the other hand, Trump has only led in one of the seven polls conducted in November. More importantly, perhaps, Clinton is above 45 percent in most polls, even flirting with 50 percent in three polls this month. With Clinton right below 50, her turnout operation should be enough to win her this state. Leaning Clinton
GEORGIA: 16 EV
Trump struggled in Georgia for much of the election, but he leads in every poll, and he’s even hit 50 percent in a couple of recent surveys. He’ll carry the Peach State. Likely Trump.
IOWA: 6 EV
Clinton has led in only one poll this fall, and even in that one (Loras), her lead was 44 to 43. The largest recent poll (Des Moines Register) is the one with the biggest Trump win. In Clinton’s favor, she actually built a ground operation here in January, which should allow her to narrow the gap, but this state shows him ahead and trending positive. Leaning Trump
MAINE: 4 EV
Maine parcels out only two of its electoral votes to the statewide winner. The other two are allocated to the state’s congressional districts. Clinton will win the Portland-based 1st district. She leads in all state polls, and is likely to win the two statewide electoral votes. The only question is the rural 2nd district. Polling in a single congressional district is tough, and so it’s guesswork, but the best guess is that Trump carries this district, which has a GOP congressman and carried a Republican to the governorship. Clinton 3, Trump 1.
MICHIGAN: 16 EV
Hillary Clinton has led in every single Michigan poll since the general election began. Trump’s promise to deliver the laid off union workers hasn’t materialized. While Michigan has made the pollsters look bad once already this election (when Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton), it’s hard to imagine dozens of polls over five months all being wrong. Likely Clinton
NEVADA: 6 EV
Trump has led in three of the last five, but Clinton has led or tied two of the last the three. Trump leads in the RCP average by 1.5 points, because of an outlier CNN poll putting him up 6 points.
Hispanics make up 28 percent of the state’s population, and the widely documented surge in Hispanic voters has made itself visible in Nevada’s early voting. Add in the union-centered and casino-funded Democratic machine that repeatedly carried Harry Reid to victory here, and Clinton becomes the favorite. Leaning Clinton
NEW HAMPSHIRE: 4 EV
Hillary led in New Hampshire poll up until the past two weeks. Since then, three polls have shown Trump ahead, and two have shown ties. In the Emerson poll, Trump closed the gap from 3 points in late October to 1 point over the weekend. Trump erased a 7-point Clinton lead in the UMass-Lowell poll. The WMUR poll showing Clinton up double digits has been the outlier, in Clinton’s direction, throughout the entire election.
In short there’s a tied race in New Hampshire. Democrats have won the Granite State three elections in a row and five of the past six.
Here, an interesting geographical trend may matter. Trump seems to overperform in New England. He won all of those primaries, and is much closer in Connecticut and New Hampshire than Romney was. Leaning Trump.
NEW MEXICO: 5 EV
She has led in every New Mexico poll this fall. Likely Clinton.
NORTH CAROLINA: 15 EV
Trump leads in RCP’s average, but a close read shows a stronger position for Clinton. Trump’s miniscule 46.8 percent to 45.4 percent lead is the function of two polls giving him large leads. Every other poll is within the margin of error, tilting towards a Clinton lead.
Trafalgar Group shows Trump up 7 in the Tar Heel State. This pollster also gives Trump above-average results in Ohio and Florida, and has him winning all three states. Perhaps Trafalgar knows something nobody else does. Or perhaps they’re just off.
Early reports show black early turnout is down, but Hispanic turnout is up. This will be the first major nail-biter early, and it’s the closest thing to a tossup. Leaning Clinton
OHIO: 18 EV
Clinton hasn’t led in an Ohio poll since October 10, and she’s never hit 50 percent here. In the RCP average, he leads by three and a half points. If there’s a state where Clinton’s organizational advantage will be minimized, it’s here: Ohio has a top-tier state GOP, and Rob Portman is dominating here. Leaning Trump
PENNSYLVANIA: 20 EV
Like in Michigan, Trump hasn’t led in a single poll here since the conventions. Clinton’s leads have been small, and one recent poll (Harper) has a 46 to 46 tie. Clinton’s turnout operation could be most critical here.
No Republican Presidential nominee has won Pennsylvania since 1988—that’s six straight presidential elections. Also, Democrats have won the governorship and the Senate races in every election except for the GOP tidal waves in 1994 and 2010, both midterm election years. The polls, the history, and the ground game are all stacked against Trump here. Leaning Clinton.
VIRGINIA: 13 EV
Hillary Clinton leads in every Virginia poll of the general election. Lately, she’s been bumping up against 50 percent. One poll (by Remington Research, an automated pollster) had Trump within two points, but that’s the outlier. She’s got a healthy lead here. Likely Clinton.
TOTAL: CLINTON 319, TRUMP 219
(I would guess a popular vote of 49 percent to 46 percent)
Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.
