As I outlined in more detail in a previous post, Indiana’s May 3 primary figures prominently in any scenario about the Republican nomination. But the lack of polling of the state may be seriously distorting perceptions of the nomination fight.
To summarize, when experts try to game out how close Donald Trump will end up to the 1,237 required to clinch the GOP nomination before the convention, they go through the remaining states, assess how well he’s likely to do and then take into account the delegate allocation rules of the states.
Most states fit into at least one of three categories: 1.) Polling data point to a clear favorite; 2.) The demographics or regional dynamics point to a clear favorite even in the absence of polling data; or 3.) The delegate allocation rules are proportional, so even if a candidate wins a state, he won’t be able to make major delegate gains.
None of these three conditions apply to Indiana, where there hasn’t been any polling, the demographics and regional dynamics give no clear advantage to either Trump or Sen. Ted Cruz and the delegate allocation rules are heavily favorable to the winner.
There’s no doubting that Indiana will play an important role down the stretch given the basic math. But the idea that this will be a close state is based purely on conjecture.
For all we know, Trump is up 20 points in Indiana. And if that is the case, then the pundit class is seriously underestimating the likelihood of a Trump nomination. On the other hand, maybe Cruz is well ahead, in which case the prospects for a contested convention are even more likely than now assumed.
Either way, we’re flying blind. Let’s hope it changes soon.
