Why would Russia hack Burisma, the Ukrainian energy company on whose board Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, once sat?
Simple: to find incriminating or embarrassing evidence of malfeasance on Biden’s part. This would give Russia a means of orchestrating a leak campaign to damage Biden, should Vladimir Putin decide he prefers an alternate Democratic nominee or a second Trump term.
I note this based on a new report published on Monday by Area 1 Security company. It alleges that a phishing campaign by the Russian military intelligence agency GRU targeted Burisma. Phishing involves tricking authorized network users into transferring their usernames and passwords to an unauthorized entity. Area 1 says the operation began in November 2019 and successfully allowed Russian officers to gain access to Burisma’s email network.
There are reasons to be cautious here. For a start, this report lacks detail and is not a U.S. intelligence finding. My colleague Eddie Scarry also observes that one of Area 1’s co-founders has repeatedly donated to anti-Trump candidates and has every incentive to hype his own company.
Still, I’m inclined to believe the report. Russia has every reason to interfere in the 2020 elections. While the United States has established greater deterrence against that risk, they are presently insufficient to alter Putin’s strategic calculation. Russia remembers President Barack Obama’s reluctance to respond to its 2016 attacks and may assess that Trump would be unlikely to sign off on a significant cyber-retaliation in fear of disrupting his relationship with Putin.
Biden is the Democratic front-runner, so GRU probably wants to arm itself with ammunition with which to damage Biden, should it so desire. This isn’t just about the general election. In the context of the candidates’ relative foreign policy platforms, Russia may well move to damage Biden if it believes Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren has a strong chance of securing the nomination.
Russia’s secondary benefit in targeting Burisma would be in allowing Russia to muddy the American partisan waters. The Russians are well aware that Burisma is seen very differently by Democrats and Republicans. In the context of the impeachment saga, anything that Russia can get out of Burisma’s email accounts might be useful. It would also enable the GRU to do one of its favorite things: matching truths to created untruths and then presenting that deception as a finished, more compelling product.
Where does this leave us?
Well, it is nearly certain that Russia has already targeted Rudy Giuliani’s Ukraine-related phone calls. This would simply be the second act in what’s likely to be a series of acts in the run-up to November 2020.
