Who won the second presidential debate?
According to bettors, Donald Trump won. His odds of victory increased by 2.3 percentage points during the debate.
Going into the debate, at 9:01 p.m., Clinton was an 80.3 percent favorite to win the election according to electionbettingodds.com. Donald Trump had a 16.4 percent chance of winning.
When the debate ended, around 10:36 p.m., Trump ticked up to 18.7 percent, while Clinton dropped to 78.4 percent.
That’s not a game-changer by any means. But it does mean Trump has, at least temporarily, started to reverse a negative trend. Since the lewd, offensive comments he made on tape in 2005 were released on Friday, Trump’s odds of winning the presidency fell by 9 percentage points prior to the debate. In less than two hours, Trump started to fix that damage.
Of course, voters might disagree with bettors. If polls released over the next week show Clinton’s numbers improving, bettors will likely move their odds accordingly.
But that’s not how it happened with the first presidential debate. Bettors increased Clinton’s odds of winning the election by 5.6 percentage points during the debate. The polls followed accordingly. In two-way polls from the first presidential debate to the vice presidential debate, Clinton increased her average lead by 1.5 percentage points. In four-way polls, her average lead increased by 2.1 percentage points.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
