We have arrived at one of the most important dates in college football, the College Football Playoff semifinals. LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, and Oklahoma have all had fantastic seasons, but only two teams will advance from this final four to play for the national championship on Jan. 13.
Look out for an air raid: All four of the teams have superstar quarterbacks who are ranked in the top seven in the country in passing efficiency.
Before you read my predictions, keep in mind my record of predicting the three biggest games of the week in the regular season: Straight up — (35-11) against the spread (26-18 with one push).
Peach Bowl: 4:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
No. 4 Oklahoma (12-1) vs. No. 1 LSU (13-0)
Two of the nation’s top offenses collide in Atlanta as Joe Burrow and the Tigers take on Jalen Hurts and the Sooners. LSU is third nationally in scoring offense, averaging just under 48 points a game, while Oklahoma comes in averaging just over 43.
Oklahoma’s defense, while not elite, is still much improved from a year ago when it was among the worst in the already-not-known-for-great-defense Big 12. LSU’s defense has been more susceptible than in the past, but the Tigers have still managed to beat the pants off of opponents because of their offense.
Oklahoma will be without starting defensive end Ronnie Perkins, running back Rhamondre Stevenson, and receiver Trejan Bridges because of suspensions. Sooners safety Delarrin Turner-Yell also has a broken collarbone and won’t play. Not a great place to start against LSU’s juggernaut offense.
LSU’s transition to a spread passing attack under Steve Ensminger and Joe Brady has worked wonders. Burrow won the Heisman Trophy this season with the largest vote margin in history. He was second nationally in passing efficiency and threw for 4,715 yards and 48 touchdowns with only six interceptions while leading LSU to an undefeated season that included wins against top-10 teams like Texas, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, and Georgia. He completed an absurd 77.9% of his passes.
LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who leads the Tigers’ rushing attack with 1,290 yards, 16 touchdowns, and an average of 6.5 yards per carry, will be a game-time decision, according to head coach Ed Orgeron. As good as he has been, LSU’s success has been predicated on its wideouts, and Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Terrace Marshall Jr. are as good a trio as any in the country.
Hurts will have to help the Sooners keep pace. He leads the team in rushing with 1,255 yards and 18 touchdowns while averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Kennedy Brooks has some pop behind him with nearly 1,000 rushing yards and is averaging nearly seven yards per touch.
Hurts has also been just as productive through the air, throwing for 3,634 yards with 32 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He ranks third nationally in passing efficiency and has completed 71.8% of his passes. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma’s star wideout, is averaging almost 21 yards per catch and has 1,208 receiving yards to go along with 14 touchdowns, but the Sooners don’t have a lot of star power behind him.
There are two X-factors in this game that will help determine the outcome: the turnover battle and whether LSU can keep Hurts in the pocket. The Sooners will likely be trying to keep pace the entire game. If they turn the ball over, the Tigers will make them pay. You can’t just give extra possessions and potentially short fields to a team that averages almost 48 points per game and expect to win. Hurts can be prone to turnovers and had a bunch of them in Oklahoma’s two games against Baylor this season. He needs to take care of the ball in order to keep the Sooners’ offense on the field and keep LSU’s offense off of it.
LSU has had some trouble with mobile quarterbacks this season, and Hurts is a fantastic one. Can the Tigers keep him from running free and picking up first downs with his legs in addition to his arm? It’ll be interesting to see whether they try to move safeties into the box to help cover Hurts or keep them back to try and take Lamb away.
The spread: LSU (-13.5)
My pick: After seeing what LSU did to Georgia’s vaunted defense in Atlanta in the SEC Championship, I’m not worried about the Tigers offensively. However, Oklahoma’s offense will put up more points than the Bulldogs did and has infinitely more backdoor-cover potential. I’m taking LSU to win, but take the points as a precaution.
Fiesta Bowl: 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
No. 3 Clemson (13-0) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (13-0)
The nation’s two most balanced teams will go head-to-head in Glendale, Arizona. This game is a rematch of the one-sided 2016 playoff semifinal that Clemson won 31-0.
Ohio State has the nation’s top scoring offense and third-best scoring defense. Clemson has the nation’s top scoring defense and fourth-best scoring offense.
Clemson is the nation’s best team when it comes to total defense and passing yards allowed, with Ohio State right behind in second.
ESPN noted that Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields and Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence both came from the state of Georgia and were the nation’s No. 1 and No. 2 recruits, respectively, in the class of 2018. A year removed, it’s easy to see why.
Lawrence led the Tigers to a national championship as a true freshman. Fields, after playing in a reserve role behind Jake Fromm at Georgia his freshman year, transferred to Ohio State and turned into a superstar.
Fields has thrown for 2,953 yards this season with 40 touchdowns and just one interception. He is ranked fourth nationally in passing efficiency, completing 67.5% of his passes, and has also run for 10 scores, giving him an insane total of 50 touchdowns on the year. Lawrence has thrown for 3,172 yards and 34 touchdowns with eight picks while completing 68.8% of his throws. He is ranked seventh nationally in passing efficiency and did add seven touchdowns on the ground.
Both teams will clearly be tested offensively and defensively, especially when it comes to the running game. J.K. Dobbins leads the Buckeyes with 1,829 yards and 20 touchdowns while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. In his last three games, against Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin, he had over 30 carries in each game and ran for a combined 540 yards and seven touchdowns. As critical as Fields’s play will be in this game, Dobbins can have just as big an impact. He’s playing at an incredible level right now.
Clemson’s Travis Etienne is still the biggest home-run threat in college football when it comes to running backs. He leads the nation with 8.2 yards per carry to go along with his 1,500 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. He had a phenomenal year last year and has done another fantastic job this season.
My two X-factors for this game will be the battle between Clemson’s wide receivers and Ohio State’s secondary and Clemson’s front seven against Ohio State’s run game. The Tigers have two outstanding wide receivers in Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross. The pair has combined for over 1,800 receiving yards and 21 touchdowns. On Saturday night, however, they’ll have to deal with Thorpe Award finalist Jeff Okudah. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info, he has allowed just one touchdown all year, and quarterbacks are completing well below 50% of their passes thrown his way.
I’m interested to see whether the Tigers will be able to get a lot of penetration along Ohio State’s offensive line and force Dobbins to go sideline-to-sideline instead of going hard between the tackles. Putting pressure on Fields could certainly help disrupt Ohio State’s passing game. Fields said he was feeling between 80%-85% this week and will bring an extra brace to the game. The Buckeyes will need Fields to take care of the ball and be both effective and efficient.
Lawrence is unflappable and will need to continue to be in the face of Heisman Trophy finalist Chase Young and the rest of the Ohio State defense. While Young led the nation in sacks, Clemson’s Jackson Carman has yet to allow a sack this season. According to Pro Football Focus, he has yielded just 10 pressures all season long. If you’re not locked into the quarterback duel or many of the other great matchups in this game, that will be another intriguing and exciting one to watch.
The spread: Clemson (-2.0)
The pick: The defending champions have gotten back to their dominant ways and are playing their best football at the most important time. They know how to get it done in big games like this, while this particular Ohio State group is inexperienced when it comes to pressure in the playoffs. I’m taking the Tigers to win and cover in what should be a very competitive game.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
