China on Tuesday will celebrate the Communist Party’s 70th anniversary of its accession to power.
Protesters in Hong Kong have little interest in helping Xi Jinping narrate his vision of a flourishing, moral superpower.
Instead, they intend to ensure Hong Kong’s fury is felt in the highest echelons of the party. And that may be the spark that unleashes Xi’s deployment of the People’s Liberation Army. The entrenchment of hostilities is now clear. With violent street battles continuing, Hong Kong authorities aim to disrupt protester plans on Tuesday by shuttering public transport hubs, banning public assemblies, and deploying thousands of police officers onto the streets.
The security effort is unlikely to succeed.
As with previous protests, those involved have shown impressive adaptability in acting outside of the police’s restraint. In addition, senior protest leaders are openly calling on Hongkongers to ignore the ban on assemblies. Considering the monumental symbolic utility of protesting Xi’s regime on its 70th anniversary, many protesters are likely to take action.
That’s a grave challenge to Xi, one that will have the standing committee on the cusp of supporting a military intervention. They’re already laying the groundwork for that intervention, describing the protesters on Monday as “terrorists.” This is designed to provide political and legal cover for any military intervention.
Still, the key factor here is that the Chinese elites see what’s happening in Hong Kong as a direct and overt challenge to the credibility of their project. That is to say, an existential threat to the party’s supremacy over the life of the Chinese nation. Many observers assume that Xi will not order a military deployment in fear of isolating his western trade partners and jeopardizing his agenda to displace the U.S.-led liberal international order.
But while it’s true that Xi doesn’t want to send forces into Hong Kong for these reasons, those concerns pale into insignificance against his need to ensure the credibility of his leadership. If Hong Kong burns as Xi is telling China and the world that his vision is the great destiny of the nation, Xi’s credibility will suffer immeasurable loss. How does Xi counter that damage?
There would appear to be only two ways: either to placate the protesters with political and legal concessions, or crush them. Xi will not agree to concessions. That leaves only the option to crush the protesters.
