Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban sparked fury in the European Union on Monday by passing a law giving himself effective dictatorial power. There is no sunset clause on his new supremacy.
This is an existential threat to the EU’s authority and values, but the organization fears that corralling Orban would do more harm than good.
Securing a narrow supermajority in the parliamentary vote, Orban no longer needs to face election or seek parliamentary assent for any legislation. Journalists will also now face imprisonment if they issue reports that fall short of deliberately vague standards. While the Parliament can revoke Orban’s new powers at any time, his Fidesz party’s dominance means that’s highly unlikely. So also does the structure of the Fidesz, which, with its highly centralized and Orban-centric personality, make it improbable that his parliamentarians could lead a successful revolt if they wanted to.
This puts the EU in a very difficult position.
The political bloc has long been concerned by Orban’s relentless centralization of power under his ten-year premiership. Yet this particular action goes much further than anything before it. In his suspending of elections, effectively ending freedom of the press, and allowing executive rule by diktat, Orban has assumed a political authority that is fundamentally anathema to everything the EU supposedly stands for. Indeed, the EU is explicitly supposed to exist as a tempering shield against such actions. Now, one of the EU member states is actively shredding the EU’s character.
But therein lies one of the key problems for Brussels. Even if his action is incompatible with democratic norms, Orban achieved his miniature coup with democratic assent.
Yes, it’s not easy to be in the Hungarian opposition. But this vote was not some kind of Nazi Enabling Act replicant. Unlike here, the passage of that act in 1933 saw parliamentarians threatened into giving Adolf Hitler his emergency powers. The simple fact is that Orban was able to pass this law because he’s popular and has repeatedly (unlike the Nazis) won large electoral majorities in fair elections. The latest polls suggest that Orban’s Fidesz continues to enjoy a massive lead in voter support.
So while it’s absolutely true that Orban has weakened the judiciary, fostered a Putin-style cronyism around major state contracts, and undermined human rights, it’s also absolutely true that his nationalist, nativist, pro-family policies are very popular in this Catholic conservative nation. Which explains why the EU is proceeding carefully in response to Orban’s latest authoritarian waltz. The European Commission’s president says she’ll respond to Orban with “a spirit of cooperation.”
Here we see an EU that is caught between wanting to restrain Orban while also ensuring he remains in the EU family. With the recent loss of Britain’s membership, and the skepticism of many Europeans across the continent toward the EU’s bureaucracy, EU leaders do not want to give Orban an excuse to leave. They believe that Hungary’s departure may start a wildfire of similar nationalist-separation movements, just as the coronavirus is biting. Just as it seems borders really do matter again.
Still, what Orban is doing represents a profound challenge to the EU’s political identity and foundations. Hence why a growing number of pro-EU voices are calling for the bloc to rip off the Band-Aid and see Hungary pushed out of the union regardless.
But one thing’s for sure. This is unlikely to be Orban’s last power grab.
