Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s re-election requires a new U.S. strategy towards Turkey. Because it’s sad to say, but Erdogan has little interest in remaining friends.
Where Turkey was previously a committed NATO ally, Erdogan is re-orientating his nation toward Russia’s Middle Eastern policy. Where Turkey was once a reliable Eurasian center for free trade, the rule of law and secular democracy, Erdogan has built an Islamist authoritarian state driven by corrupt patronage. As I say, these concerns require an associated shift in U.S. policy.
For a start, the U.S. needs to regard Turkey for what it now is: an unreliable ally. At present Turkey is extracting the benefits of its alliance with America without any responsibility. Just consider the Trump administration’s decision to allow Lockheed Martin to sell its new F-35 strike fighters to Turkey. That would be fine if Turkey was a reliable NATO partner, but Erdogan is also buying Russia’s most advanced air defense system alongside the F-35.
That’s a big problem. By selling the next generation U.S.-allied air superiority and ground attack fighter to Turkey, President Trump has given the Russians access to an intelligence goldmine. That’s because Putin will be able to use his relationship with Erdogan to get his hands on the F-35 and learn how to target, track and kill the platform in any future conflict with NATO.
There’s a simple solution here: Trump should immediately revoke Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Turkish export license.
Still, the F-35 saga only speaks to the broader strategic concern of Erdogan’s overt submission to his Russian counterpart. That submission is evident in Erdogan’s support for Russian strategic interests in Syria and his focus on disrupting U.S. regional alliances. But it’s also striking that Putin is the only foreign leader who receives the narcissistic Turkish leader’s deference. This submission is incompatible with Turkey’s responsibility to the NATO alliance.
Erdogan’s current agitation against U.S. interests is troubling, but far worse is his long-term destruction of Kemal Atatürk’s secular-democratic legacy. In recent years, Erdogan has embraced increasingly hardline policies to purge civil and political society of his opponents and to subjugate interests that do not align with his own. This is particularly true of Turkey’s sizable Kurdish population. Erdogan throws leaders from Turkey’s Kurdish HDP political party in prison and harasses its members with trumped up terrorism charges. Erdogan also has a long record of throwing independent journalists and activists in prison.
This fascistic policy reflects Erdogan’s effort to appeal to his hardliner MHP coalition partner and his deep authoritarianism. But it also illustrates the Turkish president’s mad desire to build a new Ottoman kingdom with himself as Sultan. His efforts in this regard conflict with basic democratic norms and U.S. security interests.
Yes, the U.S. has an interest in maintaining an effective relationship with Turkey wherever possible. We have to accept that Erdogan’s democratic mandate and the adoration of his Islamist AKP party mean he’s here to stay. Yet U.S. strategy towards Ankara must reflect American interests rather than our memory of former era. Erdogan is no longer a reliable American friend, and President Trump must deal with him accordingly.
