On Tuesday British Prime Minister Theresa May gets a second chance to have her controversial European Union deal voted through Parliament — or not. Originally set for December, this ballot was delayed after the government realized it would lose the vote by a landslide. She then faced and survived a no-confidence vote.
Out of the members of Parliament who backed her last time, some genuinely supported May and her deal. Others have government jobs that depend on her. Still others felt that getting rid of her might increase calls for a general election that they were afraid of losing, no matter who replaced her. Rebels who thought it was still worth that risk were eventually won over by her eleventh-hour announcement that she would resign before the next election.
But some voted for her because they were just happy to see her fail. These Brexiteers wanted her to keep pushing her assumed-doomed EU deal until there would be no time left for anything but a no-deal Brexit on March 29. This would mean a default World Trade Organization deal of 10 percent tariffs, but with none of the backstop EU controls that May had recently conceded and without the £39 billion ransom she had agreed to.
But the trouble with clever tactical voting is that it can always go wrong. May has been trying desperately to get enough Labour support to win her vote, and even if she loses, she can in theory delay the leave-by date. Other stalling tactics recently emerged when MPs blocked the government from using certain tax funds to implement a no-deal. One of the head blockers, Sir Oliver Letwin, defiantly stated, “I want to make it abundantly clear that a majority in this house will not allow a no-deal exit to occur at the end of March.” One day later, the blockers also secured a vote to demand that if her two-years-in-the-planning deal fails, she has to announce alternative plans within three days. This could include a second referendum, though it is hard to see that ending well for anyone. Does that sound desperate enough? There is more.
Brexiteers have their own countermeasures, including a call for the prime minister to force a snap election for April 4. This would mean Parliament would have to be dissolved 17 days prior to that, preventing any Remain politicians from hatching last-minute plots to block the March 29 no-deal exit date.
This assumes, even if she wanted to oblige, that May is still in office by then. When Sir Oliver spoke of a “majority in this house,” he was not referring to his elected party, but to the coalition of Remainers who are now able to win votes at the government’s expense: five in the last month.
With her authority to command a majority now in question, if she loses as badly as predicted in Tuesday’s vote — well, any other prime minister would surely resign. This time, the whole government could be joining her own “no-deal exit” as this is its primary piece of legislation. If that happens, then all the above planning and scheming goes out of the window and into the ballot box, creating even more uncertainty.
This sad state exists because of the disconnect between Parliament, which remains overwhelmingly Remain, and the electorate, which voted for Brexit. After MPs had sought people’s views through a referendum, they should have respected the verdict and not tried to stall, block, or redefine it, especially after a ballot that attracted the largest voter turnout in British history.
Britain still remains tantalizingly close to achieving its Brexit Day and leaving the EU’s failing, socialist structure. Of course, the same old parties will still be in charge the morning after, and with even more powers, but unlike our current EU leaders, we get to vote these guys in and out.
Getting back to the deal, personally I would ask the EU to wait until Britain has signed one with the U.S. first. That should focus everyone’s minds.
Andrew Davies is a U.K.-based video producer and scriptwriter who has interviewed politicians, celebrities, and heads of industry on both sides of the Atlantic.
