Even the most casual political observer can recognize that Jeb Bush’s family background is at once the biggest strength and the biggest challenge of his anticipated 2016 presidential candidacy.
As I’ve written before, I have severe doubts about Bush’s chances as a presidential candidate, despite the resource advantages that come from his last name. It seems to me like it would be suicide, in a “change” election year, to nominate the brother and son of two former presidents, especially because it would neutralize one of Hillary Clinton’s biggest vulnerabilities. And as an American who is proud of our history of breaking away from a monarchy, I am deeply uncomfortable with the idea of having three presidents from the same family.
Jonah Goldberg has also weighed in with skepticism about Bush, and Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wis., for now Bush’s main competition in the Republican primaries, clearly sees this as a huge opening.”Jeb’s a good man,” Walker told the Tampa Bay Times. “You’re not going to hear me speak ill [of him]…I just think voters are going to look at this and say, ‘If we’re running against Hillary Clinton, we’ll need a name from the future — not a name from the past — to win.'”
But clearly Bush wouldn’t have run in the first place unless he thought this problem were surmountable. So what is he thinking? I’ve been able to pick up the following from Bush World.
Bush’s team believes that ultimately, once the campaign starts going and candidates are out on the trail, voters will judge them based on individual merits. Bush plans to lay out his vision for the country and a lot of policy proposals, and if voters find this more compelling than what’s being offered by other candidates, according to this view, voters will overlook his last name.
This thinking could be seen in some of Bush’s early public appearances. For instance, at CPAC last month, he explained that should he formally run, “I have to show what’s in my heart. I have to show that I care about people, about their future. It can’t be about the past, can’t be about my mom or dad or brother. It has to be about the ideas that I believe in to move our country forward so that we can have high, sustained economic growth where more people have a chance at earned success.”
Additionally, Bush’s team is hoping that expectations will work in his favor. If people start by thinking he’s a clone of his brother, than any contrasts with George W. will become even more apparent. If voters at the outset assume he’s a liberal Republican due to his support for Common Core and stance on immigration, they may be pleasantly surprised by conservative actions on economic and social issues he took as governor as well as his fluency on a wide range of issues of concern to conservatives.
This is the thinking at least. It remains to be seen how this strategy will play out in a field with a number of credible candidates that don’t carry any similar family baggage.
