President Joe Biden announced this week that he will sign an order mandating that all private companies with more than 100 employees require the workers to get the coronavirus vaccine. Putting aside the question of whether Biden has the authority to enforce such a mandate, there should be little doubt that this will make our already-dire employment crisis even worse.
There is a reason companies such as Delta, Southwest, and American Airlines, and hospital systems across the country, are not mandating the vaccine despite external pressure to do so: They cannot afford to lose employees, but they reasonably fear they will lose some if they roll out a vaccine mandate. Indeed, a study last month found that 44% of employees across the country would quit their jobs if their employer mandated getting vaccinated. If this mandate goes into effect, tens of thousands of people will quit their jobs, and the industries that are already suffering from shortages will suffer even more.
It is also possible that employers will cut jobs to avoid the mandate, just as they did with Obamacare’s employer mandate. A 2017 report found that small businesses seeking to avoid the mandate cut up to 250,000 full-time jobs. Altogether, between 28,000 and 50,000 small businesses reduced their number of full-time employees within a two-year period because of the mandate.
Obviously, the mandates are different: Obamacare’s required employers to provide and pay for employer-sponsored insurance, while Biden’s requires them to tell their employees to get the shot. But there are a few aspects of Biden’s that could similarly cost employers: Would they need to provide weekly tests for the employees who choose to get tested regularly instead of getting vaccinated? And how much paid time off are employers required to give employees who do get vaccinated?
Moreover, if a smaller employer right on the edge of 100-plus employees believes a vaccine mandate would cost him a significant number of employees, it is plausible that such a business might reduce its staff size by a few positions to avoid the mandate. Again, this is exactly what happened when Obamacare was implemented — who’s to say it wouldn’t happen again?
In short, Biden is proposing a rule that would have serious economic consequences. Businesses are already having a hard time hiring employees, and others are struggling to hold on to the ones they have. Biden’s vaccine mandate will make this worse.
