A few developments to watch:
1) Where are Donald Trump’s polls heading? The Republican presidential front-runner hit a peak in mid-September, only to slip a few points after that. But a new CBS News poll, combined with other recent surveys, suggests Trump has stopped the slide and might be headed up again.
In the new poll, Trump is at 27 percent — exactly where he was in a PPP poll a week ago, and a little bit above where he was in polls by USA Today, Pew and NBC in late September. That suggests that whatever was causing Trump to slide — a relatively poor debate performance on Sept. 16, a public perhaps tiring of him, stronger competition — might no longer be weighing him down.
2) Bernie set to draw “distinctions” with Hillary. With the Democratic debate set for Tuesday night, there has been a lot of talk about the debating styles of Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. For his part, Sanders has mostly avoided directly criticizing Clinton on the trail, but what will happen when he is face to face with her on a debate stage? In an email exchange, Bernie spokesman Michael Briggs emphasized that Sanders has drawn contrasts between himself and Clinton in the past, and the debate “will present an opportunity to draw out some of those distinctions in their voting records.”
And not just about well-worn topics like the war in Iraq, Briggs explained. “While he welcomed her new stand on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, he has spoken about their differences on trade policy, breaking up big banks, reinstating Glass-Steagall and other Wall Street reforms, closing loopholes that let profitable corporations avoid paying their fair share of taxes, and other economic issues.”
And what about guns, an issue on which the Clinton camp has suggested the Vermont senator might be vulnerable? Look for Sanders to be ready for a fight. “I expect the debate will present an opportunity for him to talk about his record of support in Congress for strong gun safety measures and explain why the National Rifle Association has given him grades of D- and F,” said Briggs.
3) Paul Ryan and immigration. Conservative Republican opposition to the possibility of Paul Ryan as speaker of the House seems to be growing, and also coalescing around the issue of immigration.
“I’m sensing grassroots pushback due to his consistent support of amnesty,” said one conservative lawmaker who added he might ultimately be able to support Ryan. “For all his faults, Boehner was single-handedly responsible for blocking the Gang of Eight bill. Ryan would get 218, but does he want the job if he loses 20 members on the floor? I actually think there are probably some members who could command more votes than Ryan due to the immigration issue.”
As Ryan weighs his next move, there appear to be three major areas of difficulty between the Republican leadership and the most conservative Republican House members that could affect his future:
a) Issues on which Republicans genuinely disagree. Immigration is the biggest, and could be enough for several conservative lawmakers to vote against Ryan.
b) Tactics. Even with issues on which Republicans agree, like repealing Obamacare, there have been bloody fights over tactics. Ryan is seen as siding with leadership against the most aggressive Republican tactics, like defunding efforts that could lead to a government shutdown.
c) Internal politics. Conservative lawmakers feel they’ve been the targets of retribution and punishment for differing with leadership on a) and b). They’ll demand that the next speaker, Ryan or anyone else, swear off such actions in the future.
