Pessimistic predictions outweigh facts of reopening schools

In a knee-jerk reaction to Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey’s call to reopen schools in his State of the State address, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Kathy Hoffman tweeted about “the worsening spread of COVID-19 and its severe impact on our schools, students, and teachers.” But, as it turns out, COVID-19 isn’t what is ailing students and teachers. The closures she’s advocating for are doing the damage.

She’s not alone, of course. Teachers unions and their supporters are singing the same tune in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York City, and Houston.

Prolonged school closures are widening gaps in academic performance. They’re significantly harming children’s mental health, and they have yet to be justified by the data.

A recent publication by researchers at Yale University, supported by the National Bureau of Economic Research, concluded that students from the poorest communities could lose up to 25% of their “post-educational earning potential.” Further, they estimate that “more than half of the education gap accrued during the crisis will persist for this group.”

In a well-intentioned gesture to families that most need child care, many districts around the country have made options available to families. But, as Emily Oster, an economist at Brown University, rightly observes, “If school isn’t safe for everyone, why is it safe for low-income families?” Until students are back in school, they’ll continue to fall farther behind in their learning, and the gaps will continue to widen.

Students are suffering psychologically because officials refuse to “follow the science.” Recent studies around the world have shown that physical isolation from peers has led to an increase in self-harm and reports of depression. This shouldn’t be news to anyone, however. The psychological literature on the positive effects of routine and social interaction is very well established. Even Anthony Fauci, an erstwhile hero of pro-lockdown teachers unions, has called for schools to reopen.

The data on the spread of COVID-19 does not support a continuation of mass school closures. Brown’s Oster provides some clarity: “Predictions about school openings hurting the broader community seem to have been overblown.” Perpetuating school closures in the face of so much data is simply a rejection of reality.

When it comes to education policy, some of our elected officials seem to have a long memory for pessimistic predictions and a fleetingly short memory for the facts.

Matthew Nielsen is Founder and Board Chairman at Educational Freedom Institute.

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