Take Tulsi Gabbard’s explanation for not seeking reelection with a grain of salt

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard announced Friday that she will not run for reelection in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District, claiming she wants to focus exclusively on her 2020 Democratic primary campaign.

There is more to the story than the congresswoman is letting on.

“As president, I will immediately begin to work to end this new cold war and nuclear arms race and our interventionist foreign policy of carrying out wasteful regime change wars and instead redirect our precious resources toward serving the needs of the people right here at home,” Gabbard, 38, said in a video posted to social media.

She added, “As such, I will not be seeking reelection to Congress in 2020, and I humbly ask you for your support for my candidacy for president of the United States.”

For Gabbard, who is currently serving in her fourth term, things back home are not what they used to be. She has fallen in the polls with voters in her own district. Had she stayed on for reelection, she would have had to contend with an increasingly dissatisfied electorate and a primary challenge from Democratic state Sen. Kai Kahele, who has already announced his candidacy for Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District. A survey by Public Policy Polling has Gabbard leading Kahele, 48% to 26%. But that is close enough to become unpleasant, especially considering Kahele has raised $500,000, and she has raised essentially nothing for a reelection bid, focusing instead on her presidential race.

Kahele has also already secured endorsements from three former governors, suggesting that Gabbard would be going up against her entire state’s political establishment were she to stick around for reelection.

ABC News’ Honolulu affiliate, KITV, reported of Gabbard’s polling woes that “at least half” of the voters in her district would “prefer someone else in her House seat,” citing the Public Policy Polling survey, which was conducted between Sept. 27-29. The poll, which queried some 990 Democratic voters, also found that “two out of three Democratic primary voters in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District say U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard should give up her presidential aspirations.”

So, sure, Gabbard’s decision not to seek reelection may have something to do with her longshot 2020 Democratic primary candidacy, which has never broken above 3% in surveys of potential Democratic primary voters, according to a RealClearPolitics polling average. But the congresswoman’s announcement this week also certainly has something to do with her troubles at home, including declining fundraising and polling numbers, neither of which are mentioned in her official reelection statement.

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