Republicans are defending a record number of open or vacant seats in the House of Representatives this November, and that challenge could be what costs them their majority.
Writing in Axios on Friday, David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report noted the 42 open or vacant Republican seats on the ballot this fall marks the most “since at least 1930.” Of those seats, Wasserman further pointed out that “eight are in districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and an additional 13 are in districts where President Trump received less than 55 percent.”
Wasserman still rates 19 of those seats as solidly Republican, with an additional 11 rated as likely or leaning Republican. Already, three of the seats are deemed likely to go Democratic (not merely leaning Dem). Altogether, Democrats need to flip a net of 23 seats to win control of the House. The eight open seats in districts that voted for Clinton obviously give them a good start to that end. Republicans now control the House with 236 seats to Democrats’ 193.
While it’s very difficult to extrapolate from special election outcomes, Rep. Conor Lamb’s, D-Pa., narrow March victory in a district that went for Trump by 20 percent shows it’s possible for Democrats to make gains under the right circumstances, and with the right candidates.
The Senate map is much more favorable to Republicans, with Democrats defending 26 of the 35 seats up for re-election. Worse, 10 of their incumbents are running for re-election in states Trump won. Even if they managed to oust a Republican incumbent like Dean Heller in Nevada, they would have to balance out any likely red-state losses with big upsets elsewhere to come anywhere close to a majority.
Wasserman rates Democrats as “substantial favorites” to win back the House this fall. Election Day is now less than four months away, and the coming weeks could bring big battles over the Supreme Court, immigration, the NFL, the special counsel investigation and more. This era is anything but predictable. That being said, the map in and of itself presents Republicans with a serious problem.
