Comparing Trump and Biden’s sexual assault allegations

Although a handful of women, most notably Lucy Flores, emerged from the woodwork last year to accuse Biden of creepily rubbing their backs and kissing their hair, even a media eager to elect a more intersectional Democratic nominee couldn’t blow enough hot air into the story to make voters care. No one really challenged the ample photographic evidence: at best, Biden is just touchy, and at worst, Biden has doesn’t have much respect for personal space. Not great, but nothing disqualifying. And nothing truly damning materialized until Biden secured the party’s nomination.

On March 25, Tara Reade publicly claimed that while working for Biden’s Senate office, he had pushed her against a wall and forcibly penetrated her with his fingers on a summer day in 1993. Although Reade’s claim was obviously serious enough to warrant immediate investigation, her credibility was initially called into question, primarily because she had previously accused Biden of sexual harassment but not assault in 2019 and also because she had praised Biden, his challenger Bernie Sanders, and — bellwether for Democratic cries of “covert operative” — Russian president Vladimir Putin.

The evidence backing Reade’s claim now renders it credibly, most notably because of her former neighbor Lynda LaCasse, who became the first person to go on the record to claim that Reade specifically alleged that Biden had assaulted her. Rich McHugh, the veteran journalist who broke the LaCasse scoop at Business Insider, used public records to confirm that LaCasse did indeed live by Reade during the 90s, when she claims Reade told her about the assault, and found ample social media postings indicating that LaCasse dislikes Trump and supports Biden in the presidential election.

The second most important piece of evidence is a clip from Larry King Live in August of 1993, the last month Reade worked for Biden, that apparently shows Reade’s late mother claiming that her daughter had insurmountable “problems” working for “a prominent senator.” The clip strongly suggests that Reade told someone about some sort of malfeasance she suffered at the time she was working for Biden. The other three witnesses claiming that Reade told them about Biden all have corroborative problems. Two refuse to go on the record, thus the substance of their corroboration is still not clear, and the third, Reade’s brother has changed his story somewhat. Between the very strong LaCasse corroboration of assault, the somewhat strong Larry King Live corroboration establishing that Reade’s complained about something — be it marginal or an outright assault — and the auxiliary corroboration of the other three witnesses, Reade’s claim is now credible but not proven. It is credible because witnesses and evidence have illustrated a consistent and plausible thread backing Reade’s allegation, but further investigation including getting Biden’s direct response are required. It does not yet meet the preponderance of evidence, a common sense evidentiary standard meaning that a claim is proven if evidence renders it more likely than not true.

Donald Trump

Prior to his presidency, Trump had built his media persona and power specifically on his reputation as a lothario. For the intent of this article focusing solely on nonconsensual behavior, Trump’s infidelity will not be addressed here. This list only includes allegations of nonconsensual behavior that the accusers specifically complained about.

Trump has been accused of outright rape twice, though only one of those claims is credible.

In a sworn deposition during her divorce proceedings in the early 90s, Trump’s first wife and business partner Ivana Trump alleged that Trump had raped her toward the end of her marriage. Although Trump biographer Harry Hunt III claimed that Ivana had told friends about the assault, she has since retracted the claim and repeatedly deny it. In 1993, she claimed the rape allegation came as a result of a sexual encounter devoid of “love and tenderness,” but not a rape “in a literal or criminal sense.” There is evidently no one on the record to corroborate Hunt’s claim that Ivana told friends about a rape, and Ivana and the president remain friends to this day. It’s fair to say this allegation is not credible.

E. Jean Carroll, though a bit more outlandish an accuser, has a more credible claim. The advice columnist went public with her claim last year, alleging that Trump, who she had briefly met previously in their shared Manhattan social circle, raped her in a Bergdorf Goodman dressing room in the 80s. Although Carroll’s timing (she was selling a book detailing the rape) and wacky cable news appearances undermined her credibility, two of her friends went on the record to confirm that she told them about the rape at the time. Given the lack of other evidence, this allegation is not likely true, but it is a credible claim, albeit an unproven one.

Three other women have made claims of non-penetrative sexual battery in court. The first comes from Jill Harth. Unlike the bulk of Trump’s accusers, Harth first alleged that Trump groped her long before he entered politics. Harth, who along with her then-boyfriend and business partner George Houraney had established a working relationship with Trump, filed a lawsuit against Trump in 1997, alleging that Trump had repeatedly made unwanted advances toward her, but most alarmingly that in 1993 he had forced her into a bedroom to try and have sex with her, forcibly touching her genitals. It’s unclear what other independent corroboration backs Harth’s allegations, and it’s possible that someone could have been motivated to falsely accuse Trump in court for financial gain. But no one can accuse Harth of having political motivations. Supporting her allegation is that Houraney, with whom she no longer speaks, independently corroborated her account to Nicholas Kristof in 2016. Compromising it is that Harth had an axe to grind after Trump reneged on a business agreement and that they briefly dated in 1998. Kristof is convinced Harth is telling the truth, though it seems that until further investigation produces other contemporaneously corroborating witnesses, Harth’s claim is not quite credible and definitely not proven.

The other two women who have accused Trump of sexual battery in court are Summer Zervos and Alva Johnson. Zervos, a registered Republican and former contestant on The Apprentice, claims that Trump aggressively groped and kissed her in a 2007 meeting at The Beverly Hills Hotel. Phone records and Trump’s calendar do indicate that Trump and Zervos were communicating and met as she said they did, and evidence indicates that Zervos was seeking legal assistance from eventual attorney — and later foe — Gloria Allred as early as 2011. Zervos’s official court filings also claim that she told friends about Trump’s battery after the fact. Zervos’s claim is certainly credible, and if only reporters independently got contemporaneously corroborating witnesses on the record, it’s hard to see how this claim wouldn’t meet the preponderance of evidence.

Johnson, a former staffer for his campaign, claimed Trump forcibly kissed her before a rally and that two people saw it. Although both alleged witnesses denied it, Johnson’s boyfriend, mother, and stepfather all claim she told them about the unwanted kiss at the time. A video of Trump casually greeting a receptive Johnson with a kiss was claimed by Johnson’s legal suit to demonstrate “exactly what Ms. Johnson alleged happened to her: an unwanted kiss from Defendant Trump.” Both sets of contradictory witnesses here are made less credible by their affiliations. Two members of Trump’s inner circle would obviously deny Johnson’s allegation, and Johnson’s family and boyfriend would obviously support it. The timing is suspect, and the video doesn’t help. Unlike the credible allegation of Harth and the probable one of Zervos, the available evidence thus far renders Johnson’s a wash.

Five other women have adamantly alleged some form of sexual battery in public. Most compelling of these is Kristin Anderson. Then a makeup artist and restaurant hostess in New York, Anderson alleges that Trump pushed his hand up her skirt in a Manhattan nightspot in the 90s. At least one friend claims that Anderson told her about it at the time and another in 2007. Compellingly, Anderson only came forward after being contacted by a reporter from the Washington Post who had heard the story elsewhere.

Jessica Leeds alleges that Trump repeatedly groped her during a first class flight more than three decades ago. The New York Times maintains that Leeds told “at least four people close to her, who also spoke with” them. Former Tory activist Anthony Gilberthorpe claims that he, then a teenager, was on the flight and denied that Trump came onto Leeds, instead arguing that she was the one being flirtatious. There’s not any evidence that Gilberthorpe, himself with his own questionable conduct in his past, was actually on the flight. In any case, this allegation, while disturbing, isn’t quite credible without the contemporaneous corroborating witnesses on the record.

Karen Johnson, Mindy McGillivray, and Ninni Laaksonen all claim that Trump groped them, the former alleging he grabbed her genitals and the latter two their behinds. Book writers Barry Levine and Monique El-Faizy claim that Johnson’s claim is corroborated by a friend, but it’s not clear that the latter two’s accounts are backed by anything. That’s not to say that these are likely untrue, but simply that it’s impossible to make a judgment on them with such little reporting.

The rest of the claims against Trump include unwanted kisses or advances and lewd behavior, such as his well-documented surprise visits to dressing rooms of the contests he ran. Some are obviously problematic, like the allegations of Temple Taggart McDowell, Natasha Stoynoff, Jessica Drake, and Rachel Crooks, all of whom claim Trump kissed them on the lips without their consent. Two other allegations are a little closer to the mild nature of the claims made against Biden in 2019. Karena Virginia alleges Trump grabbed her arm and “then his hand touched the right side of” her breast, and Cathy Heller claims Trump kissed the side of her mouth “for a little too long.” Then there are many women who have accused Trump of making unannounced visits to pageant dressing rooms.

Considering that Trump used to brag about leering in women’s dressing rooms at his pageants, we can simply accept those allegations as fact. Also more likely than not true on the basis of evidence is Summer Zervos’s sexual battery claim. E. Jean Carroll’s rape allegation and Jill Harth’s sexual assault are credible, but not proven.

The main problem with the other claims of groping and unwanted kissing is that for all that the media likes to list the number of women who have accused Trump of sexual misconduct, they haven’t actually done much reporting to corroborate their accounts after 2016. But then again, not only does the sheer volume of the claims render the likelihood of their veracity much greater, but the world has also heard Trump outright brag about his fondness for grabbing women by the genital. It may not be a blanket confession to all accusers, but it’s nearly impossible to argue that Trump is innocent of every groping claim with a straight face.

Bottom line?

The Reade allegation is an ongoing story, and further evidence could prove either exculpatory or inculpatory. But right now, it seems reasonable to conclude that Biden is credibly accused of one sexual assault. Hair sniffing and back rubs, on the other hand, shouldn’t really be treated as being on par with Reade’s accusation.

We know for a fact that Trump barged in on dressing rooms, and it seems likely that he’s issued many unwanted kisses and felt up women without consent. But more serious are the highly believable sexual battery claim of Zervos and the credible rape claim or Carroll and sexual battery claim of Harth.