Like most states, Virginia has increased its testing for COVID-19 to better track the virus and prepare the state for reopening. But the data Virginia officials have compiled cannot be trusted.
According to the Atlantic, Virginia has been combining the data from two different types of COVID-19 tests. One is the standard viral test (most commonly given to people with COVID-19 symptoms), and the other tests for antibodies. These tests offer very different answers to very different questions. The viral test reveals who has the coronavirus right now, and hence who can spread it. The antibody test, on the other hand, reveals who has had it in the past. It is still not clear whether individuals with COVID-19 antibodies can spread the virus, but most health officials think that’s unlikely.
Combining the two tests has allowed Virginia to misrepresent its success in developing a robust testing infrastructure. I agree that it’s time to reopen the state (as Gov. Ralph Northam is doing, with the exception of northern Virginia), but it is irresponsible to use conflated, and therefore inaccurate, data as a justification.
This kind of manipulation isn’t just dishonest; it’s dangerous. Researchers depend on the data submitted by each state to study the virus and its effects. They plug that data into models that can then help us determine the virus’s trajectory. By adding positive test results from antibodies to the results from viral tests, Virginia’s data makes it seem like there are far more people actively contracting and spreading the virus than there really are. This will inevitably distort researchers’ future predictions.
When confronted about these inaccuracies, Clark Mercer, the chief of staff to Northam, claimed that several other states are also mixing their results. This isn’t true, according to the Atlantic. But Mercer pressed on: “If another state is including serological tests, and they’re ranked above Virginia, and we are not, and we’re getting criticized for that, [then], hey, you can’t win either way. Now we are including them, and our ranking will be better, and we’re being criticized.”
Someone should remind Mercer that this isn’t a competition. Virginia should be worried about doing what’s best for its citizens. That means more viral tests first and foremost, with antibody tests as a lower priority since they are not as urgent and currently unreliable. Virginia’s very last concern should be optics, or the desire to “catch up” to other states and regions that are facing completely different circumstances.
Many people are already skeptical of coronavirus-related data, and with good reason. The vast majority of scientific models released by the governments were wrong, and the doomsday scenario many anticipated simply did not come to pass. Virginia’s actions will decrease public trust even more. Why should Virginians rely on the state’s testing data when they know it’s not representative? Why should they continue to stay at home and close their businesses when the state is intentionally inflating its numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases by mixing its tests?
Clearly, Virginia officials have not thought this through. But they need to, especially if they hope to reopen the state soon.
