On Monday, the British Conservative Party signed an alliance with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). The deal will enable Prime Minister Theresa May to pass legislation through Parliament. Still, it’s an embarrassing, costly, and dangerous arrangement.
Embarrassing, because this should never have been necessary.
When May called an election back in April, she did so with the firm expectation of enlarging the Conservative Party’s small majority. Of course, it didn’t turn out that way. Instead, the Conservatives lost seats and their majority in Parliament. That made the DUP’s 10 members of Parliament crucial to May’s government.
Costly, in that this deal has forced the Conservatives to abandon some major policies.
For a start, the government will transfer an additional $1.27 billion in new money to Northern Ireland. The DUP intends to spend that money on health and infrastructure, but ultimately it’s a payoff. Or as the British put it, “a bung”. The DUP simply sat down in Downing Street and said, “Want our votes? Then pony up.”
But the DUP also successfully demanded that the Conservatives abandon their entitlement reforms. The most crucial element here was a plan to reduce social security inflation costs. But May also wanted to means test the so-called “winter fuel allowance.” That allowance provides seniors with an annual payment to offset higher heating bills during winter. Sacrificing these proposals, May now appears weak, and the national deficit will remain large.
Finally, there’s the issue of danger. The DUP is a hardline unionist party in a very divided Northern Ireland. And at present, the Northern Irish assembly (think state legislature) is suspended. By allowing the DUP into a governing coalition, however, the Conservatives degrade their ability to persuade other Northern Irish political parties to get the assembly operating again. The DUP is despised by political groups like Sinn Fein for its prior support of violent loyalist paramilitary groups.
What does this mean going forward?
It puts May in a difficult position. While she can now pass legislation, May’s premiership has never been more vulnerable. Conservative Members of Parliament were already furious with May for her dismal election campaign. Now they may argue that her deal with the DUP is too expensive. Or too dangerous.
In turn, that means a Conservative leadership challenge is on the horizon.
