The densest and second-densest cities in the nation are New York and San Francisco. They have the highest and fifth-highest rates of public transit usage, and both have two of the most Democratic-leaning electorates and are two of the biggest hubs of travel from China.
Yet, while New York City has become the coronavirus capital of the world (at least, outside of China), California in general and San Francisco have emerged as surprising coronavirus success stories.
San Francisco has had about 2,000 coronavirus cases (1 per 408 residents), compared to New York’s 200,000 cases (or 1 in 43). That number could be skewed by the prevalence of testing, but this one cannot: San Francisco has had only 36 coronavirus deaths to date, compared to New York City’s 20,000 deaths. Do the math to adjust for population, and New York’s death rate is about 60 times greater.
Even if the two cities are not perfectly comparable, this is a stunning indictment of New York state and city officials’ competence. It also calls into question the media that have debased themselves lionizing New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio.
How did this happen? There are a few hints. De Blasio was actively encouraging New Yorkers to go out to bars and movie theaters well into mid-March. It took health officials and teachers threatening de Blasio halfway into the month for him to begin shutting down the city.
Meanwhile, Cuomo’s most obvious failure may be his refusal to close the subway system, which falls under the control of New York’s state government, not the city. A working paper from economists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests that the subway system was “the principal transmission vehicle” of the virus, attributing the voluntary drop in 65% ridership to the city’s dramatic reversal in case trajectory. Indeed, the Metropolitan Transit Authority’s decision to limit the number of trains but keep running them likely accelerated coronavirus transmission by increasing the density of each subway ride. That it took Cuomo until May to order nightly shutdowns and cleanings of all cars is appalling.
But once the dust settles, Cuomo’s worst mistake will have been his order that nursing homes readmit seniors still infected with the virus. After 5,000 nursing home deaths (that is, 5% of New York’s total nursing home population), Cuomo finally reversed that order.
“Older people, vulnerable people, are going to die from this virus,” he has since said while defending himself. “That is going to happen. Despite whatever you do.”
Epidemiologists now believe that 50% to 90% of those New Yorkers killed by the coronavirus could have been spared if the city put stay-at-home orders in place just two weeks earlier.
London Breed, the San Francisco mayor who miraculously beat the party machine to win her election just two years ago, became the first mayor in the country to activate emergency health operations in January, giving the city a massive head start on accumulating necessary medical equipment. She had declared a state of emergency by the beginning of February, when a single case hadn’t been confirmed, but we now know the coronavirus was swirling around the Bay Area. At the beginning of March, she issued an order for San Franciscans over 60 or with underlying health conditions to stay at home. Bans on gatherings began early and incrementally. By the time the entire city was shut down, residents were prepared. After all, Breed had spent weeks warning them that disruption was on its way.
Unlike New York, San Francisco also benefited from an excellent working relationship between Breed and Gov. Gavin Newsom. California became one of the earliest states to declare a state of emergency, and Newsom issued the nation’s first statewide stay-at-home order. Cuomo and de Blasio have hardly missed a beat in their eternal political feud.
Unlike Cuomo, Newsom didn’t procrastinate in securing ventilators and protection equipment. Instead of reflexively blaming President Trump, Newsom simply thanked Trump for the limited assistance he actually needed.
Cuomo and the media can try to blame Florida all they like, but that’s getting harder and harder, with the Sunshine State turning out to be a shining coronavirus success compared to the Empire State — all they want. They have no excuses. The second-densest city in an equally blue state did exactly what New York could not: save its citizens from a mass die-out.
