It is easy to look at recent news from China with alarm. Beijing’s recent hypersonic vehicle tests, expanded nuclear arsenal, and bellicosity toward Taiwan have prompted concern by the United States and its allies. But there is some positive news: Xi Jinping is still the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party. And few have done more to alert the world to the threat posed by the Chinese communist regime.
Xi has ruled China since 2013. He is the most powerful general secretary since regime founder Mao Zedong. Xi has centralized power in a way that his previous two successors, Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, would have likely found impossible, if not unthinkable. Under Xi, China has become a world superpower. Beijing’s wealth and military power have grown exponentially. Some of this has to do with the results of economic reforms instituted by his predecessors, as well as the priorities of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. And admittedly, some of this has to do with Xi himself.
But in key respects, Xi should be regarded as a failure.
Indeed, for the U.S. and its allies, Xi has been a gift. The Chinese leader has managed, if unintentionally, to incite a growing coalition aimed at containing Beijing’s rise. The September 2021 announcement of the AUKUS agreement, a trilateral security pact among the U.S., United Kingdom, and Australia, is a boon to such efforts. Prior to Xi, Canberra was far more accommodating of Chinese power. Now, buoyed by Chinese economic coercion and threats, Australia is not only cognizant of the threat posed by China but happy to be an active participant in an anti-Beijing coalition.
Other U.S. collective security efforts in the region have been aided by Xi.
Relations between the U.S. and the Philippines have been increasingly fraught in recent years. In 2016, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte visited Beijing and called for an economic and military “separation” from the U.S. Five years later, however, Duterte is on his way out, and there are signs that the Philippines, like many of China’s other neighbors, is tilting back toward the U.S.
The U.S. security presence in Japan and South Korea has also been bolstered by Xi’s bellicosity. Both nations have increased military training with the U.S. and other allies. And both Seoul and Tokyo have also increased their own defense spending. Consider, also, that Vietnam and Indonesia have expanded their air, naval and coastal defenses. There are even signs that Taiwan, which for years had anemic defense spending, is also waking up to China’s threatening reality.
India is another neighbor the attitudes of which toward Beijing have hardened. Long courted by the U.S. as a potential counterweight to China, in the last three years, the U.S. has finalized agreements to share military communications and bases with New Delhi. The increased cooperation between India and the U.S. is the result of years of bipartisan efforts. But its recent success is the product of Chinese aggression, as well.
China, foreign policy analysts Hal Brands and Michael Beckley recently observed, is “increasingly encircled and faces growing resistance on many fronts.” Further, the country is “losing access to the welcoming world that enabled its advance.”
The latter point might be overly optimistic. There is no shortage of businesses and markets that remain interested in China. Beijing has paid little to no price for its threats, role in the pandemic, and abhorrent treatment of minorities such as the Uyghurs. But public opinion polls from Tokyo to Berlin and beyond show an increasingly negative view of Xi’s China.
Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese leader who is perhaps most responsible for the country’s economic rise, famously advised that China should “hide its capabilities and bide its time.” It should “be good at maintaining a low profile.” Under Xi, China has rejected Xiaoping’s dictum. And the consequences are starting to be apparent.
Sean Durns is a Washington, D.C.-based foreign affairs analyst. His views are his own.
