Florida Republicans have been polled 11 times in the last nine days. All 11 polls show the same order: Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich. In Florida, the first-place finisher gets all 99 delegates, and so the only question is whether Rubio (or less likely Cruz) can somehow make up his deficit.
Trump’s lead
Trump’s RealClearPolitics average is 14.7 points. That’s massive, and well beyond any margin of error or turnout effect. There also isn’t very much of a trend. While polls have varied, Trump has hovered right around 40 percent. If you look closely you can see a tiny Rubio uptick in recent days, and a tiny Kasich downtick.
If you take only the four polls conducted entirely this week, it averages out to 39 to 26, not meaningfully tighter than RCP’s average of 11 polls.
The latest poll, a WTSP/The Ledger Mason-Dixon poll suggests a massive Rubio surge vs. Trump, with Trump up only 36 to 30 (that’s 5 points above Rubio’s average and 4 points below Trump’s average).
Many Rubio fans or anti-Trumpers will see the latest poll as Rubio momentum or a late surge. This is reading way too much into a single poll. Polls have margins of error. Swings of a few points are normal and often more statistical noise than anything significant.
Besides this latest Mason-Dixon poll, only two other March polls have Rubio at 30 percent, and most have him in the low 20s. Only if more polls come out showing Rubio within a few points should one posit a Rubio surge.
Rubio, as has been the case in most states, is the top second pick for the highest percentage of voters — 26.7 percent according to Opinion Savvy. If he is to have a chance, he would need to hope that a high number of those are Cruz or Kasich voters who, at the last minute, decide to vote strategically for the candidate who could block Trump.
Further evidence to bolster this hope: Cruz supporters are far more likely (26 percent according to a Fox News poll) to say they could change their mind.
Do the math, however, and you see how far Rubio is from making up his gap. If a quarter of Cruz voters flips, that’s 5 percent of the electorate. If even one fifth of those go to Trump, then Rubio would at best gain 3 points on Trump through late Cruz defectors. He probably couldn’t get even that much from late Kasich defectors.
Bottom Line
Don’t put too much stake in the latest 36-30 poll. If Rubio is to have a chance, he’ll need to surge in the final five days.
Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.
