A former Russian intelligence officer who spied for Britain’s CIA equivalent intelligence agency, the Secret Intelligence Service, is in a critical condition in a British hospital.
Colonel Sergei Skripal, who was released by Russia in a prisoner swap for the SVR-“illegals” in 2010, was found alongside a younger woman on Sunday evening in Salisbury, England. British authorities say he and his daughter, who is also in a critical condition, were exposed to an unknown substance. Here are a number of considerations that British investigators will bear in mind.
Strategic context is king
In recent years the Russian intelligence services have been particularly aggressive in their targeting of dissidents and former intelligence officers on British soil. While Alexander Litvinenko is the most widely known victim of Russian assassins, he’s far from the only one. In Europe, other possible victims of Russian intelligence activities appear every few months.
The simple issue here is that while Prime Minister Theresa May recently pledged action against Russian aggression, Russian President Vladimir Putin sees Britain as a relatively cost-free playground.
Tactical context is queen
Skripal and his daughter’s symptoms skew closely to those of proven Russian attack methodologies.
The fact that Skripal and his daughter appear to have rapidly fallen ill at the same time suggests they suffered exposure to a toxic substance while out and about in Salisbury on Sunday. The Russians prefer striking in public so as to avoid triggering security systems in homes or elsewhere, where British authorities can defend against an attack.
Witness descriptions of Skripal and his daughter behaving erratically, then falling unconscious, then being critical, all point to a nerve agent of some kind. The fact that British authorities have now said there is no continuing risk to the public also lends credence to some kind of atomizer-based g-series nerve agent being used (again, a favored Russian attack tool). Such a weapon would cause rapid harm and rapid, localized dissipation.
Had radioactive materials been employed here, as was the case with Litvinenko and Polonium-210, the authorities would have closed down more areas.
If Skripal was attacked, why was he targeted?
The first and most obvious explanation is that Putin never forgives traitors.
An old-hand of the KGB who once specialized in counter-intelligence, Putin has long regarded the assassination of regime defectors as a top professional and personal priority.
Yet it also may or may not be notable that Skripal was found in Salisbury. After all, that town is just 35 miles from the Secret Intelligence Service’s credibly reported field training center at Fort Monckton. Was Skripal training SIS officers? If so, he would have been a higher priority target for Putin.
Timelines might also be relevant here.
Skripal was recruited by SIS in the 1990s at around the same time that Christopher Steele was a production officer serving in SIS’s Moscow station. Considering Steele is regarded as one of the finest human asset recruiters in recent SIS history, it’s possible he may have been the one to recruit Skripal in the first place. That would be relevant in that the Russians are believed to have been targeting Steele’s sources since the publication of his infamous dossier about Donald Trump.
Ultimately, of course, we’re just going to have to wait and see what happens here.
Update: before it became clear who she was, an earlier version of this article described Skripal’s daughter as his partner.
