Russia is salivating over the chaos that presently defines the U.S. presidential election.
Reflecting President Vladimir Putin’s interest in maximizing U.S. social instability, his primary Western mouthpiece, RT, is headlining the apparent stabbing of four supporters of President Trump in Washington. Oh — and also promoting an op-ed by one of its British puppet writers explaining how this election proves the mirage of American democracy. Variations on these articles will soon find their way into the broader portfolio of Russian influence operations. When it comes to Russian domestic media, it’s much more of a wait-and-see approach. The mainstream pro-Putin broadsheet, Kommersant, is focused mainly on reporting, albeit with a tinge of amusement over the current chaos.
Still, the early approach of Western-focused Russian influence operations is telling. It illustrates Moscow’s unexpected sense of new opportunity on two points: first, that Trump might now win, which has been Putin’s preference (to what degree is unclear), and second, that the election result will be contested through the courts. The Russians will be particularly hopeful about the second prospect in that Trump is insisting on challenging any Biden win in the Supreme Court.
Personally, I believe the Supreme Court will rule 9-0 against any Trump effort to overturn votes that are at least postmarked on Election Day. Regardless, the Russians will win here, even if a challenge gets before the highest court. That’s because such a legal challenge, whatever its outcome, will unleash rampant partisanship and social discord. These furies will not easily subside whatever conciliatory approach the elected president, be it Trump or Biden, adopts. That matters because, in the long term, Russia’s primary U.S. policy agenda is the undermining of our democratic system via the exploitation of partisan discord.
This isn’t simply about politics in the pure sense, however.
If the Russians are confident that any election chaos will persist over a period of days, they are likely to take advantage of Washington’s distraction in locales of key strategic importance. I would suggest that the security of U.S. military forces in Syria, and the potential of Russian provocation operations in Belarus or Ukraine, should be standout American concerns here. Putin is a realist actor — but one with a penchant for risk-taking in moments of perceived opportunity.
The most important takeaway is the most basic and sustaining one. Namely, that Putin is a highly capable U.S. adversary with a deep, ideologically vested desire to do this nation harm. We must be on watch.
