Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said all the right things at his first NATO summit this week. President Biden should now advance another Western security priority: the suspension of Russia’s Nord Stream II natural gas pipeline.
Although Biden’s early policy toward Russia has been weaker than commonly assumed, Austin’s positive words should not be underestimated. Referring to NATO’s mutual defense stipulation, Austin affirmed that America’s “commitment to Article 5 remains ironclad.” This will be welcomed by the Baltic states and by Poland. Those nations already spend 2% of their GDP on defense, but they were alarmed by President Donald Trump’s questioning of Article 5, which provides for NATO members’ mutual self-defense. Austin recognizes that NATO is of immense value to America and our allies. But he also recognizes that the alliance has problems.
After all, the former Army general officer pushed NATO’s 30 members to “fulfill the 2014 Wales summit defense investment pledge where all allies agreed to move toward spending 2% of GDP on defense…” That reference to a summit pledge made eight years ago is a not-so-subtle reminder that wealthy allies such as Belgium, France, Germany, and Italy are taking far too long to reach that 2% spending target. Austin also pushed for NATO to address China-related security challenges and to protect high-technology supply chains (a highly relevant concern).
The defense secretary has made a good start. Biden must now act on Nord Stream II.
The linchpin of Vladimir Putin’s strategy to ensure Europe’s energy dependence on Russia, construction of Nord Stream II, is 90% completed. Putin will soon be able to hold energy supplies hostage to Europe’s acquiescence to his policy priorities. But although it is supported by Chancellor Angela Merkel, the pipeline was recently hit with Trump administration and congressional sanctions. These sanctions impose great risks on any multinational company that completes the pipeline’s construction and permit validation process. Merkel and her Kremlin colleagues are worried.
Or at least they were.
Unfortunately, the Biden administration is now reviewing the Trump administration’s sanctions enforcement policy. If this does not seem to honor Biden’s pledge to get tough on Putin, that’s because it’s the very opposite. More ominous, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday of an absurd German offer that would see Biden suspend sanctions. In return, Germany would agree to suspend pipeline flows if Russia suspended energy supplies to Ukraine or another western partner.
It’s a ridiculous proposal for a simple reason: neither the European Union (just read this) nor Germany will ever hold up their end of the bargain. They will make the pledge, but when Russia comes biting, they will prevaricate, call for consultations, and then accept a deal on Putin’s terms.
We can be confident of this because it’s been Germany’s textbook response to Russian aggression in recent years. The situation is unlikely to improve when Merkel leaves office this year: her most likely successor is somehow even weaker on Russia. (And let’s not even get started on Merkel’s policy toward China.)
Considering the expansion of cheap U.S. gas supplies to Europe, there is no reason for Nord Stream II not to die a quick death. Failing that, Biden’s first 90 days will be remembered for a lot of rhetoric and a huge victory for Putin.
