In a presidential primary with two black senators launching parallel attacks at a septuagenarian white man, former Vice President Joe Biden has maintained not just his front-runner status overall but his dominance with the pivotal black vote.
The affable yet gaffe-prone front-runner quickly closed in on more than 40% of the black vote shortly after officially entering the crowded primary field. One summer and weeks of racially driven attacks later, Biden’s maintained his support with black voters, with a new, post-debate Quinnipiac poll giving him a whopping 47% share of support from black voters.
In contrast, Quinnipiac found that just 1% of black voters support California Sen. Kamala Harris, compared to her still weak 7% from white voters. New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker has just 2% support overall, nearly all of it coming from white voters.
Biden’s case for his candidacy is simple: If he makes it to the general election, he likely defeats President Trump in a landslide. But the curse of that case rests on the “if,” which given his gaffes, advanced age, and apparent willingness to apologize for his past to the left wing of his party, loomed large. But Biden’s last debate performance convinced the key demographics of the party’s moderate plurality that he can hang on. As a result, Harris is losing the liberal vote to Biden and the leftist vote to Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts .
The Iowa caucuses are still half a year away, and Biden has plenty of time to lose this race, but the very makeup of his support bodes well for his longevity. Yes, he has that pivotal support from black voters, but he also dominates among voters older than 50 and still wins with voters older than 35. His support is also constant across income brackets. Warren and Sanders combined may clean up half of the millennial vote, but Biden benefits more from his demographic distribution, because older voters turn out in higher numbers. Furthermore, Biden is still winning the women’s vote, a vital factor in a race against an incumbent with a less-than-stellar record with women.
If Sanders eventually gives way to Warren in the left lane of the primary, there could be a head-to-head bloodbath between two candidates drawing stark ideological lines but both capable of courting the party elite. But if that left lane remains splintered, Biden could have this primary locked up pretty quickly.
