Chris Christie has arguably had the strangest trajectory of any announced candidate in the presidential race. It was widely assumed he would be the front-runner for the Republican nomination, especially after his impressive re-election in New Jersey. Now he is running behind Donald Trump.
Christie’s fall in New Hampshire has been especially steep. As late as March, he was polling in the double digits. In November 2014, there was a poll showing him tied with Jeb Bush for the lead at 16 percent. The most recent poll in the state has him at 5 percent, below his RealClearPolitics polling average of 5.6 percent.
Jeb Bush is a big reason for Christie’s problems. Christie was always viewed as more likely to get in than Bush, but the former Florida governor defied expectations. To the extent that there is an establishment primary within the GOP contest, Bush is winning. He is out-raising, out-polling and out-hustling Christie at every step, potentially muscling the New Jersey governor out just he did to Mitt Romney.
Christie has also had trouble at home, with the Bridgegate scandal and a second term that has sapped his popularity with Garden State voters. He no longer looks as likely to put many blue states in play.
There’s also the fact that since he declined to run in 2012, other newer candidates have emerged and he’s ceased to look as promising as he once did. Throw in his handling of Hurricane Sandy, when he criticized the Republican House and embraced Barack Obama, and you get a presidential candidate who is polling around 4 percent nationally.
That’s why it is interesting that Christie talked up compromise and assailed the bipartisan dysfunction in Washington during his announcement speech Tuesday. That’s a great message for the general election, but a more complicated argument to make in the primaries. “Compromise” isn’t exactly a Tea Party buzzword.
In another interesting moment, Christie went after Mike Huckabee, though not by name, slamming candidates who think entitlement reform amounts to “stealing” from retirees. Christie is in more direct competition with Bush and has gotten into previous spats with Rand Paul, but chose Huckabee as his target instead. Perhaps he sees entitlement reform as an opportunity to build support among conservatives.
Christie is clearly banking on his reputation as a tough-talking, no-nonsense guy to boost his presidential prospects. Those were the attributes that made him a major national figure to begin with. The question for Christie, who unlike Obama didn’t strike while the iron was hot and run in the first presidential election he could credibly contest, is whether the man who announced his campaign from home can really go home again.
