With election fever running its course until tomorrow, the American electorate and lawmakers seem to have little time to think about what the U.S. should do, if anything, following the admitted brutal murder of dissident Saudi journalist and U.S. resident, Jamal Khashoggi, and the subsequent poorly orchestrated cover-up. Now, there is another reason to not hold Saudi Arabia and its crown prince responsible: sanctions on Iran.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 2, 2018
Announced to the Twitterverse with a Game of Thrones meme, Trump’s plan to squeeze Iran involves cutting its oil exports by imposing sanctions on countries that continue to import its oil in addition to other sanctions. Even though the Trump administration gave last-minute exemptions for eight of the largest importers of Iranian oil, granting up to 180 days for countries to comply, the new sanctions will certainly be painful for Tehran and force importers to look elsewhere.
With those sanctions taking effect on Monday and the countdown for exceptions ticking, the obvious question is where will countries pushed to cut imports from Iran turn to for oil?
With Venezuela in socialist shambles, oil production there has slipped, Saudi Arabia and its gulf allies gain market share and have been ramping up production to meet demand. So far, that looks like it will prevent a shock to global oil prices.
That’s a deep concern for the U.S. It puts Saudi Arabia in a position to undermine the whole plan to squeeze Iran. That would be disastrous for support in the U.S. of Trump’s plan to renegotiate the agreement with Iran after pulling out of the Obama era deal known as the Join Comprehensive Plan of Action. It would also incentivize European countries and other importers of Iranian oil to find ways to undercut U.S. sanctions lessening the pressure that Trump has identified as key to forcing Tehran’s hand.
Saudi Arabia seems well aware of this fear, and entirely willing to stoke it in order to prevent U.S. from taking action for the reprehensible murder of Khashoggi and withdrawing support from the war in Yemen.
That leaves Washington even less likely to hold the kingdom accountable. Instead, the easiest path seems to be brushing the unpleasant business of Khashoggi’s murder under the proverbial rug, along with those heartfelt objections to U.S. support for the deadly war in Yemen and the civilian casualties resulting from Saudi coalition air strikes.
In the unfortunate and long-lamented cycle of U.S. adventures and diplomacy in the Middle East, it all comes down to keeping the oil flowing and keeping prices down. Never mind the humanitarian expense.
Khashoggi, like the war in Yemen, will hardly provide a new source of oil to complement U.S. policy in Iran. Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, will be only too happy to oblige, remaining a U.S. ally.
