Taken together, Ukraine and Russia make up a third of the world’s total grain and barley exports. Last year, 20 countries relied on the two for at least half of their wheat stocks.
But with Russian ships blockading the Ukrainian ports that would normally be used to send this grain to the world market, supply is shrinking and prices are rising. “We’re running out of time, and the impact of inaction will be felt around the world for years to come,” World Food Programme Director David Beasley said last month. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has excoriated Russia for essentially holding one of the world’s largest breadbaskets hostage for the sake of its war aims.
The most important priority, though, is resolving the problem. And that’s where the major players are running into trouble.
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres of the United Nations is exerting considerable effort toward striking a deal with Kyiv and Moscow, whereby Ukrainian and Russian agricultural exports can be freed up simultaneously. But beyond generalities, we don’t know whether such a plan is feasible. The Ukrainians are skeptical of any Russian promises, given their past experience with Russian troops agreeing to, then violating, civilian evacuation agreements. The Russians don’t appear to be in a charitable mood; as Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko stated this week, Russia is more than happy to help create a corridor for Ukrainian grain shipments if Washington and the European Union lift their sanctions against Moscow. The chances of this happening are as low as the chances of Kyiv signing a surrender.
However, a number of ideas are floating around to alleviate the budding food crisis.
On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with his Turkish counterpart in Ankara, where the outlines of a possible arrangement were discussed. According to the Turks, a safe corridor in the Black Sea would be established, enforced by Turkish vessels, to free up the 22 million tons of grain stored in Ukraine. The lifting of sanctions on Russia would be a part of the deal, and Moscow would promise not to come closer to the Ukrainian coastline after the mines were dismantled. Kyiv, of course, takes Russian promises with a glacier-sized grain of salt.
Alternatively, the EU is deliberating on a plan that would bypass Ukrainian ports altogether and redirect Ukrainian wheat by train and truck. Yet this plan is more complicated than one might think since EU rail lines are not compatible with Ukraine’s. Products would have to be unloaded at the border and reloaded into EU trains, and that’s assuming the bloc can find enough trains in the first place.
The Biden administration is also debating a plan that would entice Belarus to open up a route through its territory to the Lithuanian port city of Klaipeda. In exchange for Minsk’s cooperation, the United States would offer Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko a six-month reprieve from sanctions on the potash industry, one of Minsk’s most profitable exports. But this, too, is problematic. First, the State Department is opposed to any sanctions relief on Lukashenko, who has arrested tens of thousands of people after his fraud-laden 2020 reelection. And Ukraine has contempt for Lukashenko, who allowed the Russian army to use Belarus as a staging ground for its invasion. Third, Putin holds heavy influence over the Belarusian leader.
Will any of these ideas break the deadlock, or will Ukraine’s grain remain stuck in its silos? The only thing we know for sure is that the world may reach a point where desperate times call for desperate measures.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.
