The threat of impeachment looms increasingly large over midterm season, setting up a battle between Democrats looking to downplay it and Republicans hoping to prove its legitimacy.
For the GOP, any evidence suggesting House Democrats would move to impeach the president, should they succeed at regaining power, is an electoral gift — raising the stakes, and giving candidates the juice they need to close that nagging enthusiasm gap. Some Democrats seem to understand that danger. “I don’t think we should be talking about impeachment. I’ve been very clear right from the start,” House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said in April. “On the political side I think it’s a gift to the Republicans.”
The lift for Republicans, then, is to prove Democrats really do want to impeach Trump.
Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, continues to call for President Trump’s impeachment, most recently in a “fiery” floor speech on Wednesday. He even slammed Pelosi for “trivializing” the matter. In January, 66 Democrats — about a third of their caucus — voted in favor of Green’s resolution for impeachment proceedings to begin. That number could easily balloon after election season.
Billionaire Tom Steyer has invested millions of dollars in an ad campaign calling for impeachment — a campaign Pelosi has reportedly been less than pleased to watch unfold.
And to make matters worse for party leadership, there seems to be a strong will for impeachment among the Democratic base. Per a New York Times report in January: “Seventy percent of Democrats favor impeachment hearings, according to an NBC News/The Wall Street Journal poll published last month. Overall, 41 percent of Americans support impeachment hearings — an unusually high number for a president in his first year, but well short of an electoral majority.”
But it’s not just the base. CNN’s Dan Merica reported Friday on a telling moment at the Democratic National Committee’s Women’s Leadership Forum, noting that Waters “[got] a room of DNC supporters to applaud by calling for Trump’s impeachment.”
This lends credibility to the contentions of Republicans like Rep. Sean Duffy, R-Wis., who said in March, “Democrat candidates might be sketchy about admitting that, especially in more 50-50 seats, but of course they’re going to impeach Donald Trump. Do you think that MSNBC or CNN would allow for anything less?”
Pelosi is right — moments like those are gifts for Republicans, making it easier for them to convince voters Democrats are actually serious about impeachment and (theoretically) boosting turnout in November. Expect this back-and-forth to play out all summer and into the fall.
More than a battle between Republicans and Democrats, the impeachment conflict could evolve mostly into a tug-of-war between Democratic leadership and rogue members unconcerned about the broader electoral impacts of their public statements.
