China, it seems, is making inroads all over the world. A sparkling “Belt and Road” initiative has connected or will connect Beijing with far flung metropolises, transit networks, and strategic ports. As the web of influence, or at least talk about it, grows, Washington is increasingly worried — and countries have a new negotiating strategy.
When the United States was clearly perched on top of the world following the collapse of the Soviet Union, what Washington offered was likely the best deal to be had. Now that China has proven itself an economic challenger, touting a new political and economic model rivaling that of the West, countries are no longer left with only one option.
China doesn’t even need to have a real deal on the table to make its presence felt — merely the repeated idea that China is looking for support just about everywhere is enough to embolden countries to push back on whatever the U.S. happens to be interested in.
In the long run, that will probably be a good thing. Competition, after all, should make U.S. offers even better and actually give countries increased access to investment, aid, and political relationships that they need.
In the short term, however, offers or even perceived offers from China present a new challenge for the United States that we’re probably not prepared to meet.
Pushing back on China’s interests abroad, however, should be a key part of U.S. foreign policy, as national security adviser John Bolton made clear in his remarks on investment in Africa during a Thursday speech at the Heritage Foundation.
That strategy must extend well beyond Africa. The U.S. has to be proactive in its engagement.
Failure to adopt such a strategy means that China gains the opportunity to buy long term political clout through debt-trap diplomacy or to gain control of key infrastructure. Once in place, China’s gains will be difficult to shake.
Additionally, even if there is no immediate threat of China making making such deals, if the U.S. is not also engaged, it risks being played for a fool by countries that know Washington has little idea of Beijing’s current reach, projects, or domestic political appeal.
Already, this playbook seems to be on the mind of Mexico’s new president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who has a decidedly different approach from his predecessor to dealing with President Trump’s stance on Mexico. Instead of fighting back or giving in, he’s going to champion a development plan for his country that may well also achieve Trump’s goal of stemming the tide of illegal migrants. And he’s going to use the threat of China’s growing influence to see it through.
