It is highly likely that Russia is responsible for the attack on a former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Britain on Sunday.
Addressing the media on Wednesday, the top British investigating officer confirmed that a nerve agent was deliberately employed against Skripal and that a police officer who attended the defector and his daughter is now “seriously ill” in the hospital. The two Russians are in critical condition.
While this fits my assessment on Monday that a nerve agent was involved, the fact the police officer’s life is now threatened suggests that a boutique semi-persistent agent was used and not a basic g-series agent. The Russians would be unlikely to use a more persistent nerve agent like VX, out of fear that its higher persistence would endanger first responders. The police officer’s condition shows that they messed up.
I mention Russia specifically here because only Russia has the motive and means to carry out this attack.
In turn, as the GCHQ/NSA turbines keep spinning and more evidence comes to light, it is probable that the British will find corroborating evidence pointing to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s responsibility.
If so, the degree of aggression employed here will require a very robust British response. That should include the immediate expulsion of Russia’s ambassador, the withdrawal of Britain’s ambassador to Moscow, and overt accusation of Russian involvement at the United Nations. That accusation will be important because the Russians probably used cutout officers to carry out this strike in the hope that, if caught, they could deflect culpability from Putin. Prime Minister Theresa May should also live up to her pledge to take tougher action in face of Russian aggression and expel pro-Putin oligarchs from London in a symbolic riposte to the Russian leader.
Still, this alone won’t be enough.
Asking President Trump to live up to his recent pledge that “there is nothing that would happen to [Britain] that we won’t be there to fight for you, you know that,” Theresa May should push for new British-European Union-U.S. sanctions on the energy and financial sectors of the Russian economy. That’s where Putin will feel real pain and corresponding education as to his poor choice here.
Ultimately, however, this is just another wake-up call for the West.
Putin’s Russia deserves respect, but only for what it is: a committed adversary that must be resolutely deterred — and if it ever becomes necessary, defeated.
