The Midwest was supposed to be a stronghold of Ohio Gov. John Kasich, yet on Tuesday he came in third place in Wisconsin – losing to Sen. Ted Cruz by 25 points as of this writing. This is just par for the course for Kasich, who can only be described as a fringe candidate in the race for the Republican nomination.
In the 32 states to hold preference votes for the Republican nomination (including the District of Columbia), Kasich has only won his home state of Ohio. So that’s a record of 1 and 31, or a batting average of .031. Beyond that, he has had five 2nd place finishes; seven 3rd place finishes; nine 4th place finishes; nine 5th place finishes; and one 8th place finish.
But this really understates Kasich’s poor performance. To start, the only reason that those finishes have started to go from fifth, to fourth, to third is that other candidates with no shot to win the nomination had the dignity to drop out. Kasich has demonstrated no such shame.
Beyond that, looking at just the order he finished understates how badly he’s losing in these states. For instance, in his second place finishes, he’s only come within single digits twice (in Vermont and D.C.). In New Hampshire, he came in second by 20 points; in Massachusetts by 31 points; and in Utah by 52 points.
If you add up all of the 31 states that Kasich has lost, he trailed the winner by an average of just over 30 points. He has fewer delegates than Sen. Marco Rubio, who dropped out of the race weeks ago – and even managed to lose to Rubio in Arizona a week after Rubio dropped out.
As for the Midwest, Kasich’s supposed stronghold? Outside of Ohio, seven Midwestern states have voted including Wisconsin, and he has done no better than third –losing by an average of 26 points. He was supposed to win in Michigan, but lost to both Donald Trump and Cruz.
Not only has Kasich done poorly in the states that have voted to date, looking at the primary calendar going forward, there’s no state that he has a clear edge.
Kasich’s theoretical hope is that he can capture the nomination in a contested convention, because he has done well in hypothetical general election polls against Hillary Clinton.
The problem is that theoretical general election matchups don’t matter if a candidate cannot unify his own party. And it’s hard to see how Kasich unifies the party if the convention rejects the candidates who end up capturing roughly 80 percent of the delegates in favor of a fringe candidate who got crushed nearly everywhere.
There’s actually a better argument for nominating a candidate who didn’t even seek the nomination than there is for nominating Kasich. At least with, say, House Speaker Paul Ryan, there’s no knowing for sure how he would have done. With Kasich, by the time the convention rolls around, we’ll know affirmatively that voters in 49 states rejected him.
Below is a list of Kasich’s finishes so far.
Iowa (8th place, lost by 26 points)
New Hampshire (2nd place, lost by 20 points)
South Carolina (5th place, lost by 25 points)
Nevada (5th place, lost by 42 points)
Alabama (5th place, lost by 39 points)
Alaska (5th place, lost by 32 points)
Arkansas (5th place, lost by 29 points
Georgia (5th place, lost by 33 points)
Massachusetts (2nd place, lost by 31 points)
Minnesota (5th place, lost by 31 points)
Oklahoma (5th place, lost by 31 points)
Tennessee (5th place, lost by 34 points)
Texas (4th place, lost by 40 points)
Vermont (2nd place, lost by 2 points)
Virginia (4th place, lost by 25 points)
Kansas (4th place, lost by 38 points)
Kentucky (4th place, lost by 22 points)
Louisiana (4th place, lost by 35 points)
Maine (3rd place, lost by 34 points)
Hawaii (4th place, lost by 32 points)
Idaho (4th place, lost by 38 points)
Michigan (3rd place, lost by 12 points)
Mississippi (3rd place, lost by 39 points)
DC (2nd place, lost by 2 points)
Florida (4th place, lost by 39 points)
Illinois (3rd place, lost by 19 points)
Missouri (3rd place, 31 points)
North Carolina (3rd place, 28 points)
Ohio (1st place, won by 11 points)
Arizona (4th place, lost by 37 points)
Utah (2nd place, lost by 52 points)
Wisconsin (3rd place, losing by 25 points)