There were upsets in the Nov. 3 election but only one big surprise. It was the victory by Republicans in 13 Democratic House seats. The blue wave, a Democratic landslide, predicted by the media and Democrats and feared by Republicans, didn’t happen. Instead, there was what Newt Gingrich dubbed a “red tsunami.”
A Democratic gain of 10 to 15 seats, or even as many as 20, was how the media-Democratic axis foresaw the election’s result. Republicans weren’t convinced. They took precautions to protect incumbents by spending more on their races. In the end, they lost only one House seat, plus two in North Carolina decided by judicial gerrymandering.
The Republican surge was especially unusual because a Democrat captured the presidency. I don’t remember this as having ever occurred in modern times. But that’s one reason it was such a surprise.
There’s some disagreement over what caused the split in outcomes. The predominant view is anti-Trump Republicans declined to vote for President Trump but then voted for Republicans in House races. I agree. Political writer Walter Shapiro, however, believes millions of Democrats were encouraged to vote early by mail and did so, only to skip down-ballot races they knew nothing about. Thus, House Democrats suffered.
David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, famous for his coverage of the House, has a slightly different view. In the 2018 midterm elections, he told me Trump “drove out millions of low-propensity conservatives” who didn’t vote but returned this year and voted for Republican House candidates, who didn’t suffer.
Suffering comes to mind when imagining how surprised Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi must have been. She was expecting the blue wave to bolster her party’s majority and smooth passage of a left-liberal agenda. Now, that will be more difficult. Preelection, Democrats had a 35-seat advantage. Post-election, it’s shrunk to less than half that.
Most painful for Pelosi, she won’t be free anymore to dismiss Democratic centrists and ignore their objections to liberal policies. She’ll need their votes and will have to humor them. Progressives and socialists won’t like this. For them and Pelosi, Republican gains bring heartburn.
Wasserman was impressed by GOP challengers. All 13 who ousted Democrats “were women and/or minorities. Republicans recruited and nominated candidates who looked more like their districts, and didn’t necessarily sound like Trump.”
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy was adept at connecting candidates with Trump when the president’s backing could help. In Miami, Trump’s endorsement was needed to boost Carlos Gimenez, a Cuban American. He hadn’t voted for Trump in 2016 but said he would in 2020. Trump was skeptical, but after McCarthy brought the two together, he changed his mind, endorsed Gimenez, and donated to his campaign. Gimenez won.
In California, McCarthy’s home turf, Republicans had been failing to match Democratic turnout on Election Day or in using provisional ballots. On Nov. 3, that changed. They exceeded Democrats on both and won three new seats in Southern California and held a threatened one.
In South Carolina, Democratic incumbent Joe Cunningham led Republican Nancy Mace in polls in their race. She had been the first woman to graduate from the Corps of Cadets at The Citadel. But Republican hopes were fading. McCarthy felt she was a strong candidate who would benefit from a late push, which she did. She won.
In campaign after campaign, Republicans had been frustrated by Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson in the vast 7th District of northern Minnesota. As the last of the Blue Dog Democrats, he seemed to have made peace with Republican voters. Known as the “godfather” of the sugar beet industry, he was reelected in 2016, when Trump got 30% of the vote in the district.
His last gesture to Republicans was to be the lone House Democrat to vote against Trump’s impeachment. It wasn’t enough. Republican Michelle Fischbach, a former lieutenant governor, was recruited by House member Tom Emmer of Minnesota, the chairman of the House campaign. She beat Peterson, 53%-40%.
Meanwhile, McCarthy, Emmer, and the entire party hierarchy were distressed over two House races in which popular Republicans were retiring. Prospects of holding their seats looked grim.
One was in a heavily Hispanic district in South Texas. Republicans were caught in a primary battle between McCarthy’s favorite, Tony Gonzales, a state senator, and a candidate backed by Sen. Ted Cruz. Gonzales won the primary, then the seat. In an upper-middle-class suburb outside Indianapolis, a Ukrainian immigrant, state Sen. Victoria Spartz, was a long shot but prevailed in a tight race.
Next is the 2022 midterm, and Republicans want what normally happens in midterm elections: The party that doesn’t control the White House wins big. A surprise would lift Democrats. Perish the thought.
Fred Barnes is a Washington Examiner senior columnist.
