In a typical year, the average Republican politician would give his right arm to become the running mate on the party ticket. The veep slot means all the fame and glory without any of the hassle of winning primaries.
But when Donald Trump set out to choose his teammate, he had few good options. Just as corporate sponsors haven’t wanted to be seen funding this week’s convention, the more popular GOP governors in America decided they had little to gain by joining the ticket. Nikki Haley of South Carolina and Susana Martinez of New Mexico have openly feuded with Trump. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts and Larry Hogan of Maryland, who both have better than plus-50 net job approval, have said they can’t even vote for him. Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval, who endorsed Trump in May, walked it back in June, saying he might not vote for him, either. And given the harsh criticisms they leveled at him, it would have been difficult for Trump to choose Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or even John Kasich, who may not vote for him either.
That narrowed down the list considerably. So after some unusual drama last week, Trump finally settled on Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate.
It wasn’t for Newt Gingrich’s lack of trying. He showed Thursday that he was willing to mirror Trump’s disregard for the Constitution by calling for “every person here who is of a Muslim background” to be tested on Shariah law and deported if they believe in it. Ironically, this convinced Trump’s inner circle that Pence was the better choice. Chris Christie suffers from a minus-24 point net job approval rating in his home state, having never really recovered from the BridgeGate scandal.
The choice of Pence is significant in that it represents an olive branch to conservative voters. Pence can be applauded for cutting taxes in Indiana, expanding school choice and retaining relatively good ratings in his state despite a controversial tenure. According to Morning Consult, Pence has plus-9 point net job approval. Pence also deserves credit for standing his ground (at least until now) on issues like immigration and trade, where he differs sharply from Trump. In December, Pence said Trump’s proposed ban on Muslims entering the country was “offensive and unconstitutional.” On free trade, Pence has looked out for his state’s economic interests, as international trade has brought in thousands of jobs to the Hoosier State from foreign companies like Subaru and Toyota. He is strongly supportive of NAFTA and backs the Trans Pacific Partnership.
Pence was much more of a conservative stalwart in Congress than he has been as Indiana’s governor, where he has at times irritated rank-and-file conservatives. In Congress, he was a pioneer in the now-common House GOP practice of breaking party ranks to vote against Republican legislation he didn’t think was genuinely conservative — for example, No Child Left Behind and Medicare Part D. But as governor, he pushed to expand Medicaid through Obamacare, which put state and federal taxpayers on the hook for billions of dollars.
Pence sparked a nationwide debate over religious freedom in March 2015 when he signed a bill that liberal critics claimed allowed discrimination against LGBT persons. The initial bill itself angered the Left, and Pence angered the Right as well by caving into their outcry and signing a revised version of the law eight days later.
To Trump’s credit, his choice of Pence shows he’s capable of forgiveness: Pence endorsed Ted Cruz just before the Indiana primary, though his endorsement proved futile as Trump went on to win the state in a landslide. If Trump just wanted to pick the most loyal person on his shortlist, he probably would have gone with Christie, his first prominent endorser.
But Trump’s choice also suggests that he wants the spotlight solely on himself this campaign season. Gingrich, and perhaps also Christie, are strong personalities that might have stolen away attention. Pence is known for his mild manner and is unlikely to make huge waves during the campaign season, beyond his initial announcement and his convention speech.
But of course, ever since Trump clinched the nomination, it was clear that the 2016 election was going to be about him and not about his running mate. As he argued last week, recent history suggests that vice presidential choices don’t matter much, geographically or otherwise. This year, that may prove to be truer than ever.
