John McCain’s 2016 test

The Democrats have found a youthful alternative to Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.: Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz., age 65.

Kirkpatrick is younger than both Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton and fresh political phenomenon Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. More significantly, assuming McCain wins his primary he will be 80 by the time the November 2016 election rolls around. That’s two years older than McCain’s predecessor Barry Goldwater was when he retired from the Senate.

Or to put it another way, even though she is eligible to receive Social Security benefits, Kirkpatrick is 14 years younger than McCain. Ronald Reagan was 17 years older than Walter Mondale, whom he playfully zinged for youth and inexperience in a 1984 debate.

McCain is vulnerable on two fronts. First, he could be beaten by a conservative primary challenger. In a Public Policy Polling survey early this month, only 21 percent of “very conservative” Republicans approved of his performance in office. (Though it’s worth noting he dispatched Rep. J.D. Hayworth, R-Ariz., with relative ease in the Tea Party year 2010.)

PPP’s poll showed McCain leading every challenger tested in both the Republican primary and the general election, but his numbers were anemic. He was generally in the low 40s in both the general and the primary, not a great sign for a longtime incumbent. The statement accompanying the poll said the general election numbers may be “misleadingly close,” however, because “the undecideds in each of those matchups are strongly Republican leaning.”

Would I bet against McCain, who is much sprier than Goldwater was near the end of his Senate tenure? No, I wouldn’t. But this should be an interesting test for the maverick Republican and onetime presidential nominee.

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