Former Vice President Joe Biden wants to remove the “former” and “vice” from his title.
Good luck. He is going to need it.
“I believe history will look back on four years of this president and all he embraces as an aberrant moment in time,” Biden said in a video released Thursday announcing his 2020 presidential campaign. “But if we give Donald Trump eight years in the White House, he will forever and fundamentally alter the character of this nation — who we are — and I cannot stand by and watch that happen.”
He adds, “Folks, America’s an idea, an idea that’s stronger than any army, bigger than any ocean, more powerful than any dictator or tyrant. … That’s what we believe. And above all else, that’s what’s at stake in this election.”
Though Biden polls better than nearly the entire field of Trump 2020 challengers, the former vice president is still going to have a tough slog against the approximately 1 million Democrats running for president, all of whom are engaged in an arms race of fringe ideas.
First, there is the issue that, historically speaking, Biden is not any good at running for president. He has already done this twice before, each attempt ending with the same disastrous results. There is no good reason to believe he has suddenly discovered what it takes to run a successful presidential campaign, especially against a crowded and competitive primary field filled with candidates who are advocating for things like tearing down existing border fences, abolishing the Electoral College, and paying out reparations.
This brings me to my second point. Part of the reason Biden enjoys strong polling numbers is because of his association with his former boss, who was extremely gifted in terms of running tight and efficient presidential campaigns. Indeed, unlike the rest of the Democratic field, Biden does have one potential benefit going for him: Obama nostalgia. The base is still in love with the 44th president. But how far will nostalgia carry Biden, especially when Obama himself is being coy with his support for the former vice president? How far will nostalgia carry Biden, especially when the more progressive candidates start asking uncomfortable questions about the Obama administration’s drone wars and strict immigration policies?
Third, if Biden’s announcement video is any indication of how he plans to run in the 2020 Democratic primary, he is as good as finished. The “that is not who we are” message was the one deployed by two-time failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. It did not work for her, and it almost certainly will not work for Biden. As it turns out, voters prefer it if you offer ideas and a real competing vision that is something more than a gauzy, rosy promise that you are not like the other guy.
Lastly, there is the obvious issue that Biden is a gaffe machine. The former vice president will likely spend more time defending himself from questions about when he called a tracker a “prick,” or jokes he made about convenience store workers’ accents, or jokes he made about inappropriate touching, etc., than he will spend on promoting whatever policy platform his campaign settles on. Sure, President Trump is also a gaffe machine, but the key difference is that he also is incapable of feeling shame. Biden, on the other hand, will most certainly feel compelled to respond to aggrieved factions of the Democratic base.
Also, there is the fact that Biden stands accused of multiple acts of inappropriate touching. This will almost certainly dog him every step of the way in the primary. Like his off-color remarks, he will spend more time defending his touching than explaining why he is the best candidate to take on the president.
Biden has strong polling numbers and a positive association with the Obama presidency, but that is about all he has going for him. He is going to need a bit more than that to break out of this current crop of 2020 Democratic candidates.
