In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, schools across the nation have closed down. Without assistance, some might never reopen. As policymakers scramble to contain the damage wrought by the novel coronavirus, they should consider the effects of permanent private school closures on not only the students and families they serve but also on state coffers and the district school system.
Private schools that serve low-income communities are particularly vulnerable to economic downturns because they’re forced to compete against district and charter schools that are “free.” The Great Recession in 2008 decreased private school enrollment by about 40% in hard-hit areas. According to the Cato Institute, more than 50 private schools nationwide have already permanently shuttered as a result of the pandemic. The more than 7,000 students that these schools served were disproportionately students of color — 44% were nonwhite, including 19% black and 16% Hispanic.
These closures are likely only the beginning. In the wake of the COVID-19 recession, many families may no longer be able to afford tuition. Prior to the pandemic, unemployment was 3.6%, only 0.1 percentage points above its 50-year low of 3.5%. The unemployment rate is now 13.3%. Although in May this rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points, a staggering 21 million workers remain unemployed.
To make matters worse, private schools are seeing a drop in charitable support for scholarships given to students in need. Given the experience after the recession in 2008, it’s plausible that private school enrollment would decline by one-third in many places, even greater in particularly hard-hit areas.
Preventing widespread private school closures is not only crucial for the students enrolled in them — it’s imperative for the health of the public school system as well. The fiscal strain from a sudden flood of students into the public school system would be tremendous. The cost of absorbing these students into the public system could exceed $20 billion.
The timing couldn’t be worse. States and school districts are already saddled with rapidly increasing costs, such as public worker pensions. According to Moody’s, public pensions nationwide face about $1 trillion in investment losses. Barring a dramatic turnaround in the financial markets, state and local governments will have to look elsewhere to find revenue to fill these holes and, at the same time, fund competing public services such as education, public health, and transportation.
The additional strain from a rapid increase in student enrollment may just be the anvil that breaks the camel’s back.
That’s why attacks on educational choice programs by supposed supporters of the public system are so misguided. Right now, choice programs are acting as a very necessary pressure-release valve on the public school system. During this crisis, especially, state policymakers should be seeking to shore up choice programs rather than tearing them down.
Legislators in New Hampshire voted down a bill seeking to repeal the state’s Education Tax Credit Program, but threats loom elsewhere. Tennessee’s newest educational choice policy is currently facing two lawsuits. Virginia lawmakers are considering legislation to eliminate its tax-credit scholarship program. Two states, Illinois and Mississippi, operate programs that will sunset within a couple of years. In Arizona, groups such as Save Our Schools fight to limit access to the state’s education savings accounts.
If these options are taken away, the students who benefited from them will suffer — and so will the public school system. Instead, policymakers should bolster educational choice policies and ensure that private schools get a proportional share of the emergency federal funding for education. During these trying times, it is in everyone’s best interests for policymakers to find ways to support all families and the schools they choose.
Marty Lueken is the director of fiscal policy and analysis, and Jason Bedrick is the director of policy at EdChoice.
